Baz is back for Chepstow

The 4:30 Grade 3 at Chepstow is the most interesting of the day with a good looking multiple runner handicap hurdle over 2m3f on soft ground.

Several contenders look to either push on or bounce back from an enthralling end of 2018/19.

Looking at the stats as we like to here on bobandbaz there is a clear pattern of horses a stone or so above or below the average for the race returning a good profit. In addition horses a stone above the average generally beat a higher % of other horses than other weight brackets.

Triangulating this with form and looking at the top weight BALLYANDY we see he has placed in the Coral Cup, stormed home on soft ground at Uttoxeter over this distance and could have excuses for most defeats. He is only pulled up at Cheltenham and potentially was running on last time when third to William Henry over shorter at his least favourite track.

There are a couple of others to worry about. The French Horse Greaneteen is well tipped up by lots of sources and could be class. Bryony Frost cleaned up on Saturdays last year and she rides the well handicapped four year old The Knot is Tied who’s form has been franked from the win last season.

At time of writing there is also a huge gamble on the bottom weight Champagne Court with the jockey claiming 3lb this is significant as it fulfils the stats requirement of being more than 14lb below the average and therefore could be profitable; it would have to come out from 13/2 though for me to consider chancing it.

Baz’s Chepstow Tip 4:30 Ballyandy 0.5pts E/W 11-1 general.

A Historical Look at the Prelude Handicap Hurdle #national hunt #marketrasenraces

The National Hunt season will kick off soon, before that we have the Prelude Handicap Hurdle. This gives us a good chance to get our eye in!

The betting guide based around an analysis of the last 10 years can be found here.

There are a few patterns that could be useful in whittling down the field.

Firstly: No horse under 5 or older than 8 has won this race in the last 10 years. So we are going to be quite brutal and cross off Jacamar, The Gipper, Giving Glances, Applesandpierres and Go West Young Man.

Secondly: In terms of form, horses need to have raced in Jul-Sep but not necessarily have won. The following horses we can cross off as they ran outside of the period mentioned, Mohaayed, Gumball, Earlofthecotswolds, Storm Rising and A Little Chaos.

Thirdly: Irish horses are prevalent in the winners in the last 10 years so again being quite brutal we shall cross off anything not Irish. That would be Azzuri, Scarlet Dragon and Flashing Glance.

That leaves us with 3 protagonists: Lucky Icon, See The Sea and Definitelyanoscar.

Those horses with a Sadlers Wells heritage had a definite advantage over others looking at the winners. That will take out See The Sea and leave the other two.

Not much to choose between these two but Lucky Icon has some good results on Good going in the last few outings so if the going stays that way I am going to plump for that.

Verdict: LUCKY ICON for the win

EDIT: Since I have written this Lucky Icon has been pulled out of the race, so I will be going for DEFINITELYANOSCAR instead. See the Sea still looks strong so may be worth an additional bet.

Baz previews Day 1 at Royal Ascot #RoyalAscot2019

The Queen Anne at 2:30 is a tricky affair. The Lockinge winner has doubled up 4 times in the last 10 and favourites have done well in the last 5 years with a shock 33-1 winner last year.

This bodes well for MUSTASHRY with Sir Michael Stoute in top form. His Lockinge win by two and a half lengths from Laurens is great form with the selections only disappointment at Ascot on Good to soft which is a slight negative.

Outsides to consider include:

Accidental Agent who won this last year and lost a shoe during a promising finish recently.

French Guineas winner Olmedo who would be more prominent in the betting but has disappointed since albeit with a more promising run recently.

Laurens the filly must go close; prior to finishing second to the selection in the Lockinge she had a five month lay off and needed the trip.

The 3:05 Coventry Stakes looks as good a chance as any for the O’Brien yard to get off the mark with ARIZONA taken to get the better of Guildsman and Threat all of whom post serious claims.

The 3:40 Kings Stand is a tough call but I’m banking on the double wind surgery combined with encouraging reappearance being enough for BATTASH to see off last years winner Blue point and Mabs Cross,

4:20 St James’s Palace Stakes looks like a classic rerun of the Irish 2000 Guineas when I tipped PHOENIX OF SPAIN to get the better of Too Darn Hot. Can’t see it being any different this time despite John Gosden’s ramblings. The Curragh was not long ago and PHOENIX OF SPAIN would have won if they had done another lap.

BAZ’s Tuesday Yankee

MUSTASRY

ARIZONA

BATTASH

PHOENIX OF SPAIN

Bob looking at a trio of races starting with #marketrasenraces

No joy yesterday, at least one of the bets (The Henderson horse) would have been disallowed under the new rules I am thinking about involving the 30 day strike rate and the trainer rating on Massey’s Website.

You may want to avoid the less than 30% strike rate bets whilst I am still working things out.

Market Rasen – N Henderson 31.1% Strike Rate (25.5% in last 30 days) 102% Win Return, Trainer rating 82

  • 3:25 Follow the Bear 9/4

Brighton – D Simcock 25% Strike Rate (15.4% in last 30 days) 105% Win Return, Trainer rating 84

  • 2:30 Leopardina 6/4 (2pt bet)

Uttoxeter – A Ralph 25% Strike Rate (13.3% in last 30 days) 171% Win Return, Trainer rating 104

  • 3:15 Damut I’m Out 3/1

Bob at #riponraces and #ffoslasraces

And again the bin Suroor horse loses, in fact it didn’t come anywhere. I have taken a big look at Massey’s other statistics in order to try and build in some factors to avoid this. Saeed bin Suroor had a strike rate of 32% at Nottingham yesterday and the day before 33% at Lingfield. However, in the last 30 days his strike rate is a lowly 16%. In fact when I look at the majority of the losers lately the difference between their course strike rate and their 30 day overall strike rate is above 15%. Saeed bin Suroor is also a very lowly 67 in Massey’s trainer ratings.

So I will start to have a look at building something based around these other stats into the system but I might also need to widen it out again to 25% strike rate in order to generate any bets.

Anyway I will keep an eye on it for a bit, in the meanwhile keep gong on as normal

Ripon – W Haggas 32% Strike rate (22% in last 30 days) 106% Win Return Trainer rating 110

  • 2:50 Soloist 2/1 (2pt bet)

Ffos Las – N Henderson 39% (26% in last 30 days) Strike Rate 106% Win Return Trainer Rating 78

  • 7:15 Baiser Interdit 8/11 (2pt Bet)

At #nottinghamraces where Bob pleads with the bin Suroor stats

Gah! Another Saeed bin Suroor loss! May have to adjust the system to omit his horses! (Joking) However, it truly has to bounce back soon, I must check to see what this seasons stats are for bin Suroor compared to the 10 year stats.

Once more into the fray my friends!

Nottingham – S bin Suroor 32% Strike Rate 110% Win Return

  • 12:00 Picture Frame 11/8 (2pt bet)

Edit: Just checked the bin Suroor stats – 16% over the last 60 days, way below the 10 year stat. Figure this may be the problem.

Giving another chance to bin Suroor at #Lingfieldraces

Every time I bet on a Saeed bin Suroor horse nothing ever seems to come from it although the stats are good. Well here we go again.

Davydenko won for us yesterday but the odds were not great, the same is said for the choice today unfortunately.

Lingfield – S bin Suroor 33% Strike rate 109% Win Return

  • 6:10 Quiet Place 8/11 (2pt bet)

Lazy Sunday at #nottinghamraces and#fakenhamraces

No Derby joy for me, backed the wrong stablemate to Sir Dragonet. Anyway we have a few to choose from today, sadly three of them are in the same race! Good luck with that.

Nottingham – S bin Suroor 32% Strike rate 111% Win Return

  • 2.45 Meqdam 2/1 (2pt bet)

Fakenham – S Edmunds 35% Strike Rate 255% Win Return

  • 4:10 Hepijeu 7/2

Fakenham – C Williams 35% Strike Rate 120% Win Return

  • 4:10 Cap Du Nord 5/2
  • 4:10 Fifty Shades 9/2
  • 4:45 Cottonvale 10/3