Author: Baz

Baz strums up support for Guitar Pete and Vieux Lion Rouge #Cheltenhamraces

Guitar Pete has won this season, won on soft at Cheltenham and has beaten Clan des Obeaux in a Group 1, thats why I’m backing him today at 16-1 in the 2:25 at Cheltenham. Demi Sang looks well weighted to run a good race also.

2:25 Cheltenham GUITAR PETE 16-1 OR 11-1 E/W XTRA 6 PLACES

Vieux Lion Rouge is my favourite racehorse and another who has won this season, loves soft and heavy ground and has past form in huge handicaps including a National Trial win a few years back. This horse generally finishes midfield in the grand national year in year out and in each case looks like he could easily go round another five times. If the horse wants it he will win and the worse conditions the better for the Scudamore charge.

3:00 Cheltenham VIEUX LION ROUGE 8-1

Christopher Wood to score today (one of them at least)

Today is one of those days where Christopher Wood not only runs at Wincanton but is also on the team sheet for Burnley in todays game against West Ham. I’d get a quid on the double (win and score anytime), it returns about £20. Admittedly I’d be far more confident of the New Zealander coming good rather than the thoroughbred although I’m still looking at CHRISTOPHER WOOD to maybe challenge today.

He has had a wind op and goes very well on softer ground, with Bryony Frost on board there is a chance. The other Nicholls runner Grand Sancy has landed some big prizes but seems to have failed to convince recently and the fall at Kempton looks like it has left a big question mark over the form. Beat the Judge was only 6l behind Fusil Raffles in the last outing and although the view is that the favourite was trotting home that does give Beat the Judge a 6lb pull.

In all likelihood this is a favourites race to lose with Fusil Raffles defeating a horse with a 149 rating at Punchestown when rated 145 and that is looking like a good mark

Baz still chasing old fancies but could there be a sting in the tail? #badgerbeerssilvertrophy

Although Present man represents a winning Bryony/Nicholls combination I’m taking the chance that things might be a tad more difficult against a wealth of talented runners at Wincanton today.

Just a Sting is very well handicapped getting 5lb from the likes of The Young Master and in terms of weight is very well treated. In terms of Each Way value though I cannot see past ROCK THE KASBAH. The Hobbs and Johnson combo came good in early season last year and was my tip for the national before being brought down mid race. He gets over half a stone from the likes of Cobra de Mai and The Young Master despite beating them easily in previous outings.

The Hobbs charge goes well fresh and represents a good betting angle for a horse who will again go for the National I reckon as he was schooled for the big race for the second half of last season.

1pt win JUST A STING 5-1 general

1pt e/w and e/w extra ROCK THE KASBAH 10-1 general

Baz on the Durham National: a proper handicap chase (Class 2 3m5f)

#Durhamnational

Sedgefield is the venue for Sunday’s early season jumps punting and this ten runner field on soft ground is a very tricky betting contest. This is an ideal cognitive workout for the big chases later in the season and todays race is full of known horses with decent form.

Probably the best known is Kingswell Theatre who won at Cheltenham a couple of Novembers ago and finished 6th to Tiger Roll in at the festival. A recent 2nd at Ffos Las at the end of last year means this 10 year old would be unbeatable if on his best form.

MORNEY WING, another 10 year old, has won on a seasonal reappearance before and last year came back to finish third in the Eider at Newcastle after winter victories at Fontwell and a big Betfair chase at Sandown. The selection was pulled up in the Ayr gold cup and would be more than capable of making amends today.

Others to consider are Chasma who is widely tipped in the press as will appreciate the step up in trip, although at time of writing horse is on the drift. Vinnie Lewis is another danger and loves Sedgefield but just doesn’t seem to have progressed into the sort of horse people hoped. That has not stopped him grabbing favouritism for the race at time of writing and rates the main danger based on efforts two years ago.

MORNEY WING 7-1 0.5pt e/w

Baz sifts through runners in a Ffos Las Hurdle

#Welshchampionhurdle #FfosLasraces

16:15 Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las

The intriguingly named Low Cost Vans Welsh Champion Hurdle is actually a £50K Class 2 so probably one of the better races on Saturday. In the penultimate outing of last season at Sandown Monsieur Lecoq 9st8 was narrowly headed in the last 100 yards and Chiti balko 10st7 weakened and just finished miles back in 12th. It is well documented by many tipsters and just by looking at older races that at 10st6 as he is today Chiti balko is on a good handicap mark however the past form hardly inspires and at shortish odds I can leave Chiti balko today particularly after a 200 day break.

Monsieur Lecoq is an exciting prospect with good Cheltenham and Sandown form. However at 10st10 he is today that is dreadful weighting and Chester Williams’s claim was also applied in the race discussed at Sandown so doesn’t make as much difference.

Le Prezien is very well weighted and the Nicholls charge has always been there or thereabouts but recent form before the layoff was poor and there is no obvious reason why a big performance is due.

Mohayedd hasn’t done enough in my opinion either but remains a main danger as finished reasonably well into fifth in the recent start at Newton Abbot. The horse must improve its jumping though if it is to benefit from the run.

At odds and with the usual caution applied I am going to back BELTOR. This horse joined Stephens from Sir Mark Prescott and immediately won after a long break. In addition a recent victory in front of Dr Newland’s Storm Rising and Nicholl’s Capitaine means the horse is on form. Also in that race at Newton Abbot BELTOR was at 11st2 and today races at 10st5 so isn’t outside of known parameters. It is also on favourable terms with Clyne and has necessary form on soft ground.

0.5 pts e/w BELTOR 9-1
or 7-1 five places e/w extra

Baz is back for Chepstow

The 4:30 Grade 3 at Chepstow is the most interesting of the day with a good looking multiple runner handicap hurdle over 2m3f on soft ground.

Several contenders look to either push on or bounce back from an enthralling end of 2018/19.

Looking at the stats as we like to here on bobandbaz there is a clear pattern of horses a stone or so above or below the average for the race returning a good profit. In addition horses a stone above the average generally beat a higher % of other horses than other weight brackets.

Triangulating this with form and looking at the top weight BALLYANDY we see he has placed in the Coral Cup, stormed home on soft ground at Uttoxeter over this distance and could have excuses for most defeats. He is only pulled up at Cheltenham and potentially was running on last time when third to William Henry over shorter at his least favourite track.

There are a couple of others to worry about. The French Horse Greaneteen is well tipped up by lots of sources and could be class. Bryony Frost cleaned up on Saturdays last year and she rides the well handicapped four year old The Knot is Tied who’s form has been franked from the win last season.

At time of writing there is also a huge gamble on the bottom weight Champagne Court with the jockey claiming 3lb this is significant as it fulfils the stats requirement of being more than 14lb below the average and therefore could be profitable; it would have to come out from 13/2 though for me to consider chancing it.

Baz’s Chepstow Tip 4:30 Ballyandy 0.5pts E/W 11-1 general.

Baz previews Day 1 at Royal Ascot #RoyalAscot2019

The Queen Anne at 2:30 is a tricky affair. The Lockinge winner has doubled up 4 times in the last 10 and favourites have done well in the last 5 years with a shock 33-1 winner last year.

This bodes well for MUSTASHRY with Sir Michael Stoute in top form. His Lockinge win by two and a half lengths from Laurens is great form with the selections only disappointment at Ascot on Good to soft which is a slight negative.

Outsides to consider include:

Accidental Agent who won this last year and lost a shoe during a promising finish recently.

French Guineas winner Olmedo who would be more prominent in the betting but has disappointed since albeit with a more promising run recently.

Laurens the filly must go close; prior to finishing second to the selection in the Lockinge she had a five month lay off and needed the trip.

The 3:05 Coventry Stakes looks as good a chance as any for the O’Brien yard to get off the mark with ARIZONA taken to get the better of Guildsman and Threat all of whom post serious claims.

The 3:40 Kings Stand is a tough call but I’m banking on the double wind surgery combined with encouraging reappearance being enough for BATTASH to see off last years winner Blue point and Mabs Cross,

4:20 St James’s Palace Stakes looks like a classic rerun of the Irish 2000 Guineas when I tipped PHOENIX OF SPAIN to get the better of Too Darn Hot. Can’t see it being any different this time despite John Gosden’s ramblings. The Curragh was not long ago and PHOENIX OF SPAIN would have won if they had done another lap.

BAZ’s Tuesday Yankee

MUSTASRY

ARIZONA

BATTASH

PHOENIX OF SPAIN

Baz ponders Irish 2000 Guineas and depicts a Phoenix from the flames at the Curragh. #irish2000guineas

Magna Grecia romped to victory at Newmarket in the English equivalent of this race and has to be fancied due to Aiden O’Brien being so successful in doubling up Guineas winners in recent years.

However the time appears to be right for Too Darn Hot who according to Willy Haggas was only 85% for the last run and has apparently come on so quickly an attempt to wait until the Royal meeting in June has been hastily abandoned.

This is all well and good but at 11/8 i’m steering clear. PHOENIX OF SPAIN was a head behind Magna Grecia at Newmarket and only 1 3/4 lengths second to Too Darn Hot at Doncaster. With a current SP of 18-1 and EW extra potential around 14’s this has got to be a safer bet than lumping on a sweaty over-hyped fave. There I’ve said it and probably ruined it now.

2pts EW (or EW extra) PHOENIX OF SPAIN 3:35 Curragh

Baz looking at long-shots in the big handicaps #Ascotraces #Haydockraces

The 4:00PM at Ascot is a large flat handicap over 7f on sticky testing ground. Therefore I’m looking towards the bottom of the weights as stats suggest a good return against SP for this scenario.

0.5pt e/w TAUREAN STAR fits the bill exactly and has form on sticky ground at Goodwood. Form is a concern hence the hopeful 25-1 SP but there are excuses wrt surfaces and the drop in weight make this a worthy punt.

If your looking for something more proven then I cannot resist my usual punt on RIPP ORF who won this race last year and has about as much chance as any of managing it again.

0.5pt e/w RIPP ORF 4PM Ascot

0.5pt e/w TAUREAN STAR 4PM Ascot

At Haydock the 3:10 I’ve boiled it down to a three way split between FLYING TIGER, CHRISTOPHER WOOD and JOHN CONSTABLE. The latter won last year but has been off form preceding a recent wind-op. The middle one has a good record with current trainer and has to be feared at time of writing as the ATR market movers page shows it 27% green. The long-shot FLYING TIGER is in receipt of weight all round and at 20-1 probably the safest play in a very capable field.

0.5pt e/w FLYING TIGER 3:10 Haydock

0.5pt e/w JOHN CONSTABLE 3:10 Haydock