The 4:30 Grade 3 at Chepstow is the most interesting of the day with a good looking multiple runner handicap hurdle over 2m3f on soft ground.
Several contenders look to either push on or bounce back from an enthralling end of 2018/19.
Looking at the stats as we like to here on bobandbaz there is a clear pattern of horses a stone or so above or below the average for the race returning a good profit. In addition horses a stone above the average generally beat a higher % of other horses than other weight brackets.
Triangulating this with form and looking at the top weight BALLYANDY we see he has placed in the Coral Cup, stormed home on soft ground at Uttoxeter over this distance and could have excuses for most defeats. He is only pulled up at Cheltenham and potentially was running on last time when third to William Henry over shorter at his least favourite track.
There are a couple of others to worry about. The French Horse Greaneteen is well tipped up by lots of sources and could be class. Bryony Frost cleaned up on Saturdays last year and she rides the well handicapped four year old The Knot is Tied who’s form has been franked from the win last season.
At time of writing there is also a huge gamble on the bottom weight Champagne Court with the jockey claiming 3lb this is significant as it fulfils the stats requirement of being more than 14lb below the average and therefore could be profitable; it would have to come out from 13/2 though for me to consider chancing it.
Baz’s Chepstow Tip 4:30 Ballyandy 0.5pts E/W 11-1 general.