Category: Race Day

Bob vs Baz – The predictions #bobandbaz

Should be a good day!

14:05 Ascot  – (Christy) 1965 Chase

  • Politologue – Bob & Baz

14:25 Haydock – Betfair Exchange Stayers Hurdle

  • Folsom Blue & Shades of Midnight e/w – Baz
  • First Assignment (win) and Paisley Park e/w – Bob

14:40 Ascot – Ascot (Coral) Hurdle

  • If The Cap Fits – Bob & Baz

15:00 Haydock – Lancashire (Betfair) Chase

  • Native River – Baz
  • Might Bite – Bob

 

A look at the two other big races the #1965chase and the #Ascothurdle – Bob

Two big races may be at Haydock today, but there are equally big races happening at Ascot, namely the Christy 1965 Chase and the Ascot (Coral) Hurdle.

Lets start with the 1965 Chase which only has 6 runners which is a great pity.

Horses of 8 years old dominate the winners over the last 10 years and the only one in the field is Gold Present.

Winners over the last 10 years have all been within 10lbs of the top weight; this doesn’t help us as they all are, but there is a slight correlation between field size and weight with the larger the field the closer to the top weight the winner is. An extrapolation of this suggests that with a field of 6 the winner will be within 5lbs of the top weight; this includes Politologue, Benatar and Gold Present.

Favourites have a good record here making Politologue stand out and most horses who have won have an SP of 7/2 or below which at the moment only includes Charbel and Politologue.

Politologue is also the only P Nicholls horse in the field and he has won this more than anyone else in the last 10 years.

The Sadler’s Wells pedigree crops up again and only Politologue and Sizing Granite can claim this.

All of this points towards the favourite POLITOLOGUE to do what is expected. My only worry is how he will find the going as he has one on Ground more towards the soft lately. It could be that GOLD PRESENT might be the main danger and could be worth an e/w bet.

Advice: 2pts Win POLITOLOGUE, 1pt e/w GOLD PRESENT

Ascot Hurdle next

90% of winners come from the age group 4-7 so this discounts Rayvin Blue and Tomngerry.

There is a positive for the favourite as they have a higher percentage of winners and on the 3 times the race has been on Good ground the favourite has won twice; so therefore If the Cap Fits is standing tall here.

With the favourites winning the SP over the last 10 years is mainly 100/30 or below so this will only include If the Cap Fits and We Have A Dream.

Irish horses (If the Cap Fits and Tomngerry) and those with the trust Sadler’s Wells pedigree (If the Cap Fits and Babbling Stream) also stand out.

In terms of trainers N Henderson has won 3 times in the last 10 years and We Have A Dream is the only one he has in the field.

Weights of winners tend to be well spread out and there is little to no correlation between size of field and weight of the winner.

Advice

2pts win IF THE CAP FITS who was a good 7l ahead of We have a Dream in their last race.

Bob’s Sunday Cheltenham Analysis

 

Unibet Greatwood H’Cap Hurdle

  • Age: 4/5 (80% of winners)
  • OR: 135+ (80% of winners)
  • Non-Favourite (100%)
  • No form preference
  • Sadler’s Wells Pedigree (30%)

Looking at the historical stats there is one horse that emerges from the rest and that is Nube Negra who came 3rd in a race here last March and is open to improvement.

Also good in the stats are SIlver Streak and Charlie Parcs as Baz has mentioned. Baz’s choice Nietzsche doesn’t conform to the stats very much but you never know!

Continue reading “Bob’s Sunday Cheltenham Analysis”

West Yorkshire Hurdle [Raceday]

Another race that has very few runners left in it.

Again the stats show that favourites do not win often so we miss Bryony Frost’s mount this race as well.

Going to plump for Keeper Hill, best stats of the rest and has something to prove.

Could be worth putting an e/w on High Secret as the stats show it is best of the rest behind Keeper Hill and Old Guard.

Verdict

1pt win Keeper Hill

1/2 pt e/w High Secret

 

Charlie Hall Steeple Chase [Raceday]

The field has been decimated and there are only 4 runners left going for it.

Black Corton is the favourite but the Going is Good so therefore the stats suggest it will not win, eben with Bryony Frost onboard.

Going to take a punt at Double Shuffle, a distance winner with a decent OR and has a high racing post racing.

Verdict

1pt to win – Double Shuffle

 

Old Roan Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) – Aintree [Raceday]

The latest betting shows Flying Angel (7/2) steaming in to close on the odds for Cloudy Dream (11/4) so it is well backed. I still think Cloudy Dream is likely to start favourite but best to check before the off.

1pt Flying Angel to win if Cloudy Dream is favourite, otherwise put it on Cloudy Dream.

There might be a useful each way on Javert as well.

0.5pt each way Javert (9/1)

Chepstow.racecourse.co.uk Novices Chase (Listed) (Class 1) – Race Day

Going: Good

A 3 way battle between Monbeg Lad, Master Tommytucker and Spiritofthegames.

As the going is Good (Although Good to Soft in places which doesn’t help) we are not going to be siding with the favourite.

Master Tommytucker is at present the favourite although it is nip and tuck with Monbeg Lad.

1pt to win Master Tommytucker if not the favourite

1pt to win Spiritofthegames if Master Tommytucker is the favourite.