Category: Preview

Friday racing at #newburyraces – Bob

Class 1 racing starts early this week at Newbury with the Ladbroke Winter Carnival kicking off on Friday. There is also great racing at Newcastle with the Fighting Fifth on Saturday.

A quick look at Fridays racing.

Berkshire (Ladbrokes) Novices Chase

This has never been a large field but 4 horses is a bit pitiful.

There is not a lot between the 4 runners using historical stats, but I have won before with Spiritofthegames and think it may do the job again.

Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle Race

This is a better looking race with 8 runners.

Preferred Age Range 6-9 counts against Kris Spin and Unowhatimeanharry.

OR range counts in Clyne and Kris Spin.

The odds narrow down to just Wholestone, Sam Spinner and Unowhatimeanharry.

The preferred pedigree counts for Wholestone, Sam Spinner, Momella and Monbeg Theatre.

The field has 8 runners so using an extrapolation from the weight of the winner against size of field suggests that the winner must be within 3lbs of the top weight. Only Wholestone and Sam Spinner are in this range.

The going is soft at the moment so this counts against the favourite. So it is going to be a dust up between Wholestone and Sam Spinner and I will be betting on whichever is not the favourite!

Might be worth a punt on Monbeg Theatre each way.

 

 

Bob’s take on the #betfairstayers at #Haydockraces

Conditions look like they will be Good going for the race which means I have very little to go on from the last 10 years. The trend looks to be the less soft the ground the more likely the favourite will win so First Assignment gets the nod here.

Odds of previous winners are 10-1 below in the main so that would include in First Assignment, Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park, Bobo Mac and Folsom Blue. Average SP tends to be around 7-1 so Folsom Blue might be too far away.

The age of the winners has been predominantly 5 year olds so into that group comes First Assignment, Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park and Milrow

The smaller the field the less far from top weight the winners become, extrapolating my data in an 8 horse field we are talking any horse within 4lbs of the top weight of which there are none, so therefore the top weight horse is the one we want which is Paisley Park.

A Sadler’s Wells pedigree is again a good thing to have which would include Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park and Folsom Blue.

Taking all these into consideration we have a good tussle between the top weight Paisley Park and the favourite First Assignment.

First assignment won here last week over the same distance on the same going whilst Paisley Park has only had one outing recently over this length and came 13th albeit on Soft ground.

So 2pt win for First Assignment for me. If Paisley Park drifts out beyond 10-1 it might be worth an e/w bet.

Bob’s initial thoughts on the Betfair Chase

I am going to give my initial thoughts now as I am going to the Beer Festival tomorrow night and may not have many brain cells left to do a deep and meaningful on Saturday!

The going at the moment looks to be Good to Soft but if it ends up Good, this will be a problem from a historical stat view as in the last 10 years there have been no runs at Good going. I reserve the right to change a few things on Saturday when the going and my head has become clearer!

Winners peak in the age range of 9 and 10 so this plays into the hands of Might Bite and Thistlecrack and is a negative against Clan Des Obeaux who is a mere 6 years old.

90% of winners have had an OR of 160+; all of the field do except Clan Des Obeaux.

P Nicholls, C Tizzard and N Twiston-Davies have dominated this race as trainers in the last 10 years. The only horse not in their hands is Might Bite.

Horses with Sadler’s Wells in their pedigree have a good winning history at this event, more than twice than any other pedigree in the last 10 years. Might Bite, Bristol De Mai and Thistlecrack all have Sadler’s Wells in their pedigree, the others do not.

So based on my initial analysis Might Bite and Thistlecrack come out on top, Native RIver and Bristol De Mai just behind and Clan Des Obeaux bringing up the rear.

There are no great indicators for form from the historical analysis for horses that have not run this season. That said Might Bite beat Bristol De Mai last April by 7l on Good to Soft ground. Native River beat Might Bite by 4.5l last March on Soft ground at 3lbs heavier than now. Thistlecrack has not won on Soft ground and last had a win on Good to Soft in November 2016 in a Group 2 race. Clan Des Obeaux last won on Good to Soft in Mar 2017 when 4lbs lighter.

So Might Bite looks a better bet than Thistlecrack but it will all come down to the ground on the day, if it goes softer that could point to Native River.

This might well be a decision best left till after 10 pints of Auld Bowel Buster.

Rising Stars Novices Chase Preview

The clear favourite on analysis is Secret Investor with Bags Groove not far behind, a switch of favourites would see them much closer in the ratings. Going to be hard to separate them and a look at the Going tomorrow may help as the softer the more likely the favourite wins.

A small field means that the top weight is not likely to win but as 4 of the field share the same weight I do not think this will make a difference here.

We have won with Secret Investor before and that is good considering the bad run lately so it maybe the one to go for. Wait until tomorrow though.

Elite Hurdle Preview

Going to be a tricky one this, but I bet it ends up being a great race. The top two on my analysis are agreed with by the current betting and either could be favourite when the race starts. This would make a difference making If the cap fits a clear winner if Verdana Blue is favourite on my analysis, so we shall have to wait.

The main threats come from We Have a Dream, John Constable and Air Force One. I certainly think an each way on Air Force One might be advisable.

West Yorkshire Hurdle [Preview]

Another good looking race this one with some good horses leading the betting. Much will depend on which horses are left after declaration, as well as who is favourite.

Between Wholestone, Clyne and Old Guard at the moment as it is with the odds.

Charlie Hall Steeple Chase [Preview]

This has all the makings of a great race with many previous winners in the mix. There is not much between them as you might expect at this point of the season and with so many big names. Much will depend upon who ends up as favourite and the going. Also odds are based on the antepost so these will definitely change.

 

Old Roan Chase (Class 1) (Grade 2) – Aintree [Preview] Updated

UPDATED BASED UPON ANTEPOST ODDS

The runners were entered at noon today so lets have a quick look at how they fit in the betting guide.

Age 10+ (60% of winners from this range)

  • God’s Own

OR below 160 (60% of winners from this range)

  • Every runner has an OR below 160 so this isn’t going to help us!

Non-Favourite (90% of winners)

  • Have to wait for this piece of info

Generally odds below 10-1 (70% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream (9/2)
  • Modus (11/2)
  • God’s Own (13/2)
  • Frodon (9/1)
  • Beggar’s Wishes (10/1)

Irish (70% of winners)

  • Beggar’s Wishes
  • Cloudy Dream
  • Doitforthevillage
  • Flying Angel
  • God’s Own
  • Guitar Pete
  • Javert
  • King’s Odyssey
  • Templehills
  • Theo

No great pedigree needed (Nothing stands out)

Not raced this season (90% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Doitforthevillage
  • Flying Angel
  • Frodon
  • God’s Own
  • Guitar Pete
  • Javert
  • King’s Odyssey
  • Modus
  • Ramses de Teillee
  • Value at Risk

Did not win last out (100% of winners)

  • Cloudy Dream
  • Doitforthevillage
  • Flying Angel
  • Frodon
  • God’s Own
  • Guitar Pete
  • King’s Odyssey
  • Modus
  • Ramses de Teillee

 

At the moment the main contenders are God’s Own (13/2), Cloudy Dream (9/2). The favourite is Cloudy Dream at the moment, leaving God’s Own as the choice.

Verdict at the moment

1pt to win God’s Own

Chepstow Racecourse Silver Trophy H’Cap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Preview

Chepstow Racecourse Silver Trophy H’Cap Hurdle (Grade 3)

At the moment there are a lot of entries (38) and this will be much less on race day (18). Therefore, this is very much a preview and on Friday it will become a lot clearer.

Using the betting guide there are 4 horses that tick all the boxes (Ante Post Odds)

  • Crosshue Bay (33-1)
  • Jersey Bean (33-1)
  • Notwhatiam (20-1)
  • Taxmeifyoucan (33-1)

Look at the ante-post betting most are at bigger odds but remember that the favourite has not won in the last 10 years, the average SP of the winner was around 11-1.