Month: October 2018

Chepstow.racecourse.co.uk Novices Chase (Listed) (Class 1) – Race Day

Going: Good

A 3 way battle between Monbeg Lad, Master Tommytucker and Spiritofthegames.

As the going is Good (Although Good to Soft in places which doesn’t help) we are not going to be siding with the favourite.

Master Tommytucker is at present the favourite although it is nip and tuck with Monbeg Lad.

1pt to win Master Tommytucker if not the favourite

1pt to win Spiritofthegames if Master Tommytucker is the favourite.

Chepstow Racecourse Silver Trophy H’Cap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Race Day

Going: Good

Following the declaration the battle looks to be between Theclockisticking, Sneaky Feeling and Court Minstrel.

The favourite has never won in the last 10 years and at the moment Theclockisticking is joint favourite at 11/2, but Sneaky Feeling has been steaming in from 9/1 down to 13/2 so it is going to go down to the wire to see which ends up at favourite.

1pt to win Sneaky Feeling if not favourite

1pt to win Theclockisticking if not favourite

 

Persian War Novices Hurdle (Class 1) (Grade 2) – Declaration

Down to 8 runners, this will make a big difference to the preview post, however, a lot of the main contenders are still there.

Ages 4-6

  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor
  • Coolanly
  • Equus Millar
  • Gosheven
  • Push the Tempo
  • Dorking Boy

Irish Or French

  • Equus Millar
  • Gosheven
  • Push the Tempo
  • Coolanly
  • Minella Warrior

Trained by P Nicholls

  • Secret Investor

Sadlers Wells Pedigree

  • Equus Millar
  • Push the Tempo
  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor
  • Double Treasure

Placed in the Last Race

  • Equus Millar
  • Push the Tempo
  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor
  • Double Treasure

Still left with the same protagonists Equus Millar, Push the Tempo, Minella Warrior and Secret Investor.

Need to wait for the odds to stabilise and discount the favourite (at the moment Minella Warrior). Winners are normally below 10-1 so that would only leave Secret Investor and Minella Warrior as the two main contenders.

At the moment Secret Investor 1pt to win.

Chepstow Racecourse Silver Trophy H’Cap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Declaration

Well it has all changed with the declaration! Forget the previous post entirely.

Using the betting guide

Irish

  • Theclockisticking
  • Sneaky Feeling
  • Court Minstrel
  • Dashing Oscar
  • Louis Vac Pouch
  • Point of Principle

Sadlers Wells Pedigree

  • Le Patriote
  • Captain Cattistock
  • Sneaky Feeling
  • Court Minstrel
  • Louis Vac Pouch
  • Golden Birthday
  • Dashing Oscar
  • Point of Principle
  • Zalvados

Placed in last race

  • Theclockisticking
  • Whatmore
  • Zalvados
  • Chic Name

Theclockisticking is the favourite on the betting at this time so that would rule it out under the guide, the favourite has never won in ten years.

Average Starting Price is around 11-1 and although the winner has been as high as 40-1, this is only once in the last 10 years.

At the moment Sneaky Feeling or Court Minstrel look more likely, however Court Minstrel has won this twice before and is not rated as highly this time.

At the moment take a 1pt on Sneaky Feeling to win.

Chepstow.racecourse.co.uk Novices Chase (Listed) (Class 1) – Declaration

We are down to 5 runners from the original 18 so lets see how that affects things.

Age 5-6

  • Lisdoonvarna Lad
  • Spirit of the Games

Irish

  • Lisdoonvarna Lad
  • Spirit of the Games
  • Poetic Rhythm

Sadlers Wells Pedigree

  • Master Tommytucker

Placed Last Time Out

  • Monbeg Legend
  • Master Tommytucker

Tricky this one, going to be between Master Tommytucker and Spiritofthegames. Lisdoonvarna Lad would be in play but no horse over 6-1 has won the race and the present price suggests it isn’t going to be below that.

If the going swings towards Good to Soft (at the present it is Good) then things may change as it will if the present favourite changes (Monbeg Legend)

Chepstow Racecourse Silver Trophy H’Cap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Preview

Chepstow Racecourse Silver Trophy H’Cap Hurdle (Grade 3)

At the moment there are a lot of entries (38) and this will be much less on race day (18). Therefore, this is very much a preview and on Friday it will become a lot clearer.

Using the betting guide there are 4 horses that tick all the boxes (Ante Post Odds)

  • Crosshue Bay (33-1)
  • Jersey Bean (33-1)
  • Notwhatiam (20-1)
  • Taxmeifyoucan (33-1)

Look at the ante-post betting most are at bigger odds but remember that the favourite has not won in the last 10 years, the average SP of the winner was around 11-1.

Persian War Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) 14th October – Preview

Persian War Novices Hurdle

Using the betting guidelines from the above link we can start sorting the horses out.

Ages 4-6

  • Dorking Boy
  • Equus Millar
  • Gosheven
  • Haul Away
  • Push the Tempo
  • Scheu Time
  • Tossapenny
  • Coolanly
  • King’s Reste
  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor

Irish or French

  • Equus Millar
  • Gosheven
  • Haul Away
  • Push the Tempo
  • Scheu Time
  • Tossapenny
  • Coolanly
  • King’s Reste
  • Minella Warrior

Trained by P Nicholls

  • Secret Investor

Sadlers Wells Pedigree

  • Equus Millar
  • Push the Tempo
  • King’s Reste
  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor

Placed in the last race

  • Equus Millar
  • Haul Away
  • Push the Tempo
  • Scheu Time
  • King’s Reste
  • Minella Warrior
  • Secret Investor

No-one ticks all the boxes so we are left with Equus Millar (12-1–>14-1–>20-1), Push the Tempo (11-1–>7-1–>12-1), King’s Reste (40-1), Minella Warrior (11-4–>5-2) and Secret Investor (10/3–>7-2) to sort out when we have more information about odds (ante post odds given) and going. Average SP About 6-1.

Chepstow-racecourse.co.uk Novices Chase (Listed) 13th October – Preview

Chepstow-Racecourse.co.uk Novices Chase

There are 18 entries for this race although some have been double entered for the Persian War Novices Hurdle on the Sunday, so expect this number to go down.

Looking at the betting guidelines from the 7 year analysis

Age 5-6

  • Kapcorse
  • Vision Des Flos
  • Amour De Nuit
  • Drovers Lane
  • King’s Reste
  • Lisdoonvarna Lad
  • Lostintranslation
  • Molly Childers
  • One for Billy
  • Scorpion Sid
  • Spirit of the Games

Irish

  • Amour De Nuit
  • Drovers Lane
  • King’s Reste
  • Lisdoonvarna Lad
  • Lostintranslation
  • Molly Childers
  • Scorpion Sid
  • Spirit of the Games

Sadlers Wells Pedigree

  • Drovers Lane
  • King’s Reste

Placed Last Time Out

  • Drovers Lane
  • Amour De Nuit
  • Kapcorse
  • Vision Des Flos
  • King’s Reste
  • Lostintranslation
  • Molly Childers
  • One for Billy
  • Scorpion Sid

So at the moment only 2 horses Drovers Lane and King’s Reste tick all the boxes. When the favourite emerges and the going is identified then we can look at this again.

Welcome

The first race up this season that we will look at is the Chepstow-racecourse.co.uk Novices Chase which will run Saturday 13th at Chepstow. Entries need to be in by noon on Monday so we can look at the horses then and see how they match against the betting guides. Please remember that this is a statistical look at races and just looks at the major trends. Nothing beats knowing the horses and the trainers as sometimes the statistics pick out the most improbable horses!