Month: November 2018

Bob’s take on the #betfairstayers at #Haydockraces

Conditions look like they will be Good going for the race which means I have very little to go on from the last 10 years. The trend looks to be the less soft the ground the more likely the favourite will win so First Assignment gets the nod here.

Odds of previous winners are 10-1 below in the main so that would include in First Assignment, Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park, Bobo Mac and Folsom Blue. Average SP tends to be around 7-1 so Folsom Blue might be too far away.

The age of the winners has been predominantly 5 year olds so into that group comes First Assignment, Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park and Milrow

The smaller the field the less far from top weight the winners become, extrapolating my data in an 8 horse field we are talking any horse within 4lbs of the top weight of which there are none, so therefore the top weight horse is the one we want which is Paisley Park.

A Sadler’s Wells pedigree is again a good thing to have which would include Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park and Folsom Blue.

Taking all these into consideration we have a good tussle between the top weight Paisley Park and the favourite First Assignment.

First assignment won here last week over the same distance on the same going whilst Paisley Park has only had one outing recently over this length and came 13th albeit on Soft ground.

So 2pt win for First Assignment for me. If Paisley Park drifts out beyond 10-1 it might be worth an e/w bet.

I keep, going to the river to pray… (unless lightning strikes twice) – Baz #betfairchase

There are only two horses which have any chance of beating the reigning Gold Cup Champion and they are quite clearly Mite Bite and Thistlecrack.

Taking Mite Bite first, this is a seriously proven racehorse who last year demolished fields which included Bristol de Mai by 7 Lengths at Aintree last April and also Clan des Obeaux by over 10L. Horses conquered by Mite Bite include Bristol de Mai, Whisper and the recently impressive Frodon of Paul Nicholls.

Mite Bite has won an impressive 10 jumps races from 15 outings and with Nico de Boinville on board is sure to have a massive go particularly as he re-opposes Bristol de Mai and Clans des Obeaux at the same weights as when victorious last time. The one fly in the ointment is that he has never won at this distance of 26F and indeed when turned over by 4.5L in the Gold Cup by Native River I couldn’t help thinking it might as well have been 45L such was the decisiveness of the win. Opposing on identical terms at 26F I can’t see how Mite Bite can prevail. Despite being schooled for the race last year Native River has won 2 out of 3 at this distance, Colin Tizzard is as shrewd as any trainer and I reckon Richard Johnson will be trying to hammer home an early payday which should be straightforward if the horse is fully fit.

The main unknown threat comes from Thistlecrack. After winning the King George this horse was tipped for glory but injury set backs and a poor couple of early races last season mean only faith and an extraordinary performance would be enough for Thistlecrack to finish in the top two. However reports from home are encouraging and if just if Thistlecrack can recapture the same form which made him great then he could drive Native River all the way.

2pts Native River Win
0.5pts EW Thistlecrack

Bob’s initial thoughts on the Betfair Chase

I am going to give my initial thoughts now as I am going to the Beer Festival tomorrow night and may not have many brain cells left to do a deep and meaningful on Saturday!

The going at the moment looks to be Good to Soft but if it ends up Good, this will be a problem from a historical stat view as in the last 10 years there have been no runs at Good going. I reserve the right to change a few things on Saturday when the going and my head has become clearer!

Winners peak in the age range of 9 and 10 so this plays into the hands of Might Bite and Thistlecrack and is a negative against Clan Des Obeaux who is a mere 6 years old.

90% of winners have had an OR of 160+; all of the field do except Clan Des Obeaux.

P Nicholls, C Tizzard and N Twiston-Davies have dominated this race as trainers in the last 10 years. The only horse not in their hands is Might Bite.

Horses with Sadler’s Wells in their pedigree have a good winning history at this event, more than twice than any other pedigree in the last 10 years. Might Bite, Bristol De Mai and Thistlecrack all have Sadler’s Wells in their pedigree, the others do not.

So based on my initial analysis Might Bite and Thistlecrack come out on top, Native RIver and Bristol De Mai just behind and Clan Des Obeaux bringing up the rear.

There are no great indicators for form from the historical analysis for horses that have not run this season. That said Might Bite beat Bristol De Mai last April by 7l on Good to Soft ground. Native River beat Might Bite by 4.5l last March on Soft ground at 3lbs heavier than now. Thistlecrack has not won on Soft ground and last had a win on Good to Soft in November 2016 in a Group 2 race. Clan Des Obeaux last won on Good to Soft in Mar 2017 when 4lbs lighter.

So Might Bite looks a better bet than Thistlecrack but it will all come down to the ground on the day, if it goes softer that could point to Native River.

This might well be a decision best left till after 10 pints of Auld Bowel Buster.

Results

Well Done to Baz. A great pick with 3 out of 4 winners. I had a first and a second 🙁

Results

TeamPlacedWinners
Baz13
Bob21

Bob’s Sunday Cheltenham Analysis

 

Unibet Greatwood H’Cap Hurdle

  • Age: 4/5 (80% of winners)
  • OR: 135+ (80% of winners)
  • Non-Favourite (100%)
  • No form preference
  • Sadler’s Wells Pedigree (30%)

Looking at the historical stats there is one horse that emerges from the rest and that is Nube Negra who came 3rd in a race here last March and is open to improvement.

Also good in the stats are SIlver Streak and Charlie Parcs as Baz has mentioned. Baz’s choice Nietzsche doesn’t conform to the stats very much but you never know!

Continue reading “Bob’s Sunday Cheltenham Analysis”

Baz’s Sunday Cheltenham Analysis

In the Greatwood at 3PM Verdana Blue who really ran well last time out and must be respected however many pundits are suggesting the time is right for Western Ryder and the (totally) unreliable genius of Charlie Parcs needs to be at least acknowledged.

I feel an outside bet is in order here and suggest Nietzsch at a double figure each-way price. When I spotted this it was 20-1 but now available at 14. The selection is 24lb less than Silver Streak when behind by 10 lengths at Ascot in December and 16lb less than it was against Verdana Blue when 8L behind Verdana Blue in the same race. The selection also managed a 6th place finish at Cheltenham this time last year with Mohaayed in 10th, in this race Nietzsch is 20lb better off than then.

Using the same thinking in the Shloer I’m backing Sceau Royal who finished 16l ahead of Brain Power at the festival but now is just 3lb heaver in comparison. The Supreme Trial at 2:30 has Seddon heavily fancied and I see no reason to oppose a horse with a proven turn of foot.

The 1:50 has Claimantakingforgan fancied by many but I’m going for the outside bet of Laylor who was victorious by 3.5L when beating the former into 5th place off the same terms as today back in 2017 at Aintree.

Baz’s Big Race Alert: will it be a Supasundae?

Tomorrow at Punchestown 2:15 sees by far the best race so far this season where Samcro takes on Faugheen and Supasundae. In this race I just can’t resist Supasundae purely on the form, the only time it has lost it was beaten by Penhill, Yanworth, l’Ami Serge and Apple’s Jade (twice). Faugheen was beaten by Supasundae at Leopardstown in February and may well be short again here, well worth the 8-1 currently going for the Harrington wonder horse.

Bob
You know me and Irish races Baz, you are on your own with this one!

Saturday Reflections from Baz

I thought the first race was a tough one and this showed with a close finish. The Nicholls’ French runner Quel Destin which prevailed has now won a few but should be watched with caution as it appeared the other runners in today’s race  made numerous errors.

Rather Be might have picked up a place after a very unlucky trip from behind from a falling horse but may not have chased down Frodon and the winner. Frodon up 5lb from the latest win still powered away from the others and remains a top early season horse.