Conditions look like they will be Good going for the race which means I have very little to go on from the last 10 years. The trend looks to be the less soft the ground the more likely the favourite will win so First Assignment gets the nod here.
Odds of previous winners are 10-1 below in the main so that would include in First Assignment, Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park, Bobo Mac and Folsom Blue. Average SP tends to be around 7-1 so Folsom Blue might be too far away.
The age of the winners has been predominantly 5 year olds so into that group comes First Assignment, Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park and Milrow
The smaller the field the less far from top weight the winners become, extrapolating my data in an 8 horse field we are talking any horse within 4lbs of the top weight of which there are none, so therefore the top weight horse is the one we want which is Paisley Park.
A Sadler’s Wells pedigree is again a good thing to have which would include Captain Cattistock, Paisley Park and Folsom Blue.
Taking all these into consideration we have a good tussle between the top weight Paisley Park and the favourite First Assignment.
First assignment won here last week over the same distance on the same going whilst Paisley Park has only had one outing recently over this length and came 13th albeit on Soft ground.
So 2pt win for First Assignment for me. If Paisley Park drifts out beyond 10-1 it might be worth an e/w bet.