Call me lord has never been over 2 and a half miles and unowhatimeanharry may well be past his best. Sam Spinner needed the run last time but has failed to impress too often this season. The horse with proven form on the ground and with a trainer history of winning is AGRAPART
Okay, I feel tired, end of term is always like that. Anyway 50% of races today I got right, lets see what happens tomorrow.
2.25 JLT Hurdle (Long Walk)
The betting guide tends to agree with the betting so far but there are some nice chances to look at.
I really am not sure about the current favourite Call Me Lord however, as with Henderson’s winner today (Angels Breath) although it doesn’t tick all the boxes, one knows that if Henderson has put it in the race it is for a good reason.
Unowhatimeanharry looks a more likely bet but no horse over 9 years old has won this in the last 10 years.
That leaves Agrapart and Sam Spinner not too far from the right SP range based on historical stats. SAM SPINNER although unseating the jockey at the last race just about nudges it for me.
There looks to be a great e/w tip of TOP NOTCH, if the starting price was a bit closer I would have suggested it could win the race outright. Stablemates of favourites always seem to have a chance of outshining them on the day.
1pt Win SAM SPINNER
0.5pt E/W TOP NOTCH
3.35 Ascot Handicap Hurdle
The betting guide picks up on some promising horses looking at the patterns in the last 10 outings.
I am not convinced about the current favourite Jolly’s Cracked It. Top weights have not won in the last 10 years and neither have many favourites. As the ground is likely to get softer the chances of a favourite winning decrease further. An age of 9 years old is also outside the normal range of winners.
However, I do like WESTERN RYDER, a distance and going winner, who has run this season and placed last time out with a good OR and age that tick the boxes. The larger field also suggests that the winner will be within 7 lbs of the top weight, which he is. Fidux could well push all the way but is not proven on the soft going. Mont Des Avaloirs looks to be the closest to Western Ryder in terms of historical stats and could well be up there at the end.
Looking further down the field I am tempted by an each way on LORD NAPIER. Again all the OR and age boxes are ticked, they have won at distance and on the going and run this season. At 33/1 must be worth a little punt.
1pt Win WESTERN RYDER
0.5pt e/w LORD NAPIER
Can’t help thinking there is more to come from this one and the experience and run should hold him in good stead for this race.
Last day of term ahead!!!!!!!! Friday feeling is nearly here.
Okay, settle down Bob….
1.55 Ascot – The Kennel Gate (Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices Hurdle)
Using the betting guide things are looking quite tight amongst the first few horses. Thomas Darby, Angels Breath and Danny Kirwan all tick the boxes of the historical stats. Angels Breath is somewhat untested at this distance but I cannot believe that Nicky Henderson would enter it if the distance was too much. However, Thomas Darby and Danny Kirwan have both won at the distance before although the going might be against them! As the historical starting price for winners is 3-1 or below I shall have to go for the favourite this time THOMAS DARBY.
I also reckon that THISTLE DO NICELY would make a good each way bet. A distance winner, won last time out and the right age according to the historical stats, certainly worth more than the 16/1 at the time of writing.
1pt Win – THOMAS DARBY
0.5pt E/W – THISTLE DO NICELY
2.30 Noel Novices Chase
From the betting guide it looks as though it is going to be a two horse race between Vinndication and Count Meribel. Both are Distance, Going and course winners and won last time out this season. VINNDICATION however has far more consistency over the distance and going, Count Meribel only winning 2 out of 9 races on soft ground against 100% from Vinndication. Likewise, Vinnidication has not lost over this distance yet but Count Meribel has.
1pt win – VINNDICATION
Well, it is coming towards the end of term for me and Baz, we are running on Adrenaline and coffee, probably some red wine as well. There is some great racing at Ascot this Friday and Saturday and we will try to focus on at least four races over the two days.
Friday 21st December
Saturday 22nd December
The Ascot Handicap Hurdle Race
The JLT Long Walk Hurdle Race
I will certainly be trying to get the stats up for those races, we may have a look at some of the listed races as well.
Right, I have a bit more time to look at this one and considering I was roundly beaten in the 1:55 I need to make amends.
I am going to stick my neck out and go for THE NEW ONE, who has won the race previously and although he has had a few naff races lately I reckon this race is well suited to him. He is a course, distance and going winner, has a good pedigree and his trainer N Twiston-Davies has won here a lot.
It was the BobandBaz Xmas do last night and Bob’s got a headache and Baz is possibly banned from the casino so all in all a good night had by all. It’s so cold and windy probably foolish to bet today but i’m having a fiver on War Sound, Rather be and Ratoute Yutty later on.
Will be back when conditions are not so uncertain!!!
Immense hangover, visited santa, won at blackjack last night. Hence very late with this one!
I reckon that WAR SOUND is a good bet for the 1.55 at Cheltenham, I will post my reasons after the race!
Ok I will write as the race unfolds.
War sound has been ridden this seasons and won last time out, he is also a previous distance winner and has won on the going today. With the size of the field being smaller than in the past it suggests that the weight of the horse will be well below top weight.
It is also quite possible that a good each way would be Casablanca Mix for the same reasons above.
Well, what a difference a week makes. Last week the bets were all over the place probably because the going had just changed and today they were spot on! A joy to see, and even more joy for my bank balance which was down to the last few pennies. Bob
1:30 Aintree (Beecher) Vieux Lion Rouge, still young enough, won this before and now at lowest weight for a while
2:00 Aintree Almost nowhere to go here, Definitely Red is as solid as they come, One for Arthur first race back from serious injury and Double Shuffle may not like the ground but remains the best alternative but would be a shock if Definitely Red didn’t win.
3:15 Aintree Shanahan’s Turn, favourable reports from the gallops here, Captain Redbeard a danger dropping back in trip but well beaten last time abeit over further.
3PM Sandown (Tingle) Must be Altior can’t see any other way, only un de seaux can challenge.
1:50 Sandown Lalor remains the one to beat here
2:25 Sandown Apples Shakira remains the one to be on with A Hares Breath a slight worry if it becomes a war.
3:35 Sandown Shanroe Santos