This race is fascinating as virtually every horse is in with a chance. A lot is being made of a Newbury Cl4 maiden win by Rathill and the trainer has a good record in this race. However Southfield Stone has also won 3 Taunton Cl4’s on the bounce and Cobden/ Nicholls are a formidable pairing. Grand Sancy finished 4th in a huge Ascot race and this form is from the big time. However top rated ELEXIR DE NUTZ was giving Garvey’s plate 10lb when beating him last time and Garvey’s has since shot up on New Years Day franking the form. So I’m backing the 5yo Tizzard grey to narrowly beat a hard fighting Grand Sancy.
This is the solitary good race on today other than the Listed Mares Hurdle which I am going to give a miss. It normally has around 7 runners and has been won 4 times by N Henderson since 2011 and P Nicholls has a good record before that.
N Henderson has one horse in the race Rathhill who has had very little previous running. This shouldn’t be a concern as if you look back through my posts you will see he has done this lately and he only enters them if he knows they can win. Rathhill does tick virtually every box from the betting guide; Age 6, No Rating, last raced in December and won, has previously won at distance and on the same going, is Irish, the favourite and has an SP of less than 7/2.
The main obstacles to the win come from the two Nicholls horses and Tizzards, Elixir De Nutz. However, this horse has not placed on the Soft going yet so must be a concern. If the going gets Good to Soft we may see Henderson pull Rathhill and Elixir could be the main contender.
Paul Nicholls Southfield Storm and Grand Sancy both have won over distance and placed on the Soft going. However, Grand Sancy did not win in the last race and has too high an SP at the moment. Southfield Storm could be a player if the SP falls below 7/2.
Mercy Mercy Me looks to be one to avoid but Idee De Garde could prove to be better than the odds suggest as he is a proven distance winner and placed on the same going.
However, at the end of the day, unless the going changes dramatically towards Good (at which point I can see Henderson pull the horse) RATHHILL should win.
1pt Win RATHHILL
Well done to Baz for the New Years racing tips, he did very well. My feeling is the ground ended up being more Good than Good to Soft and that threw my stats off. Well that’s my excuse anyway!
Only one race tomorrow – Thank God! The stats are up all ready for you to look at.
Some decent winners in the last few years, Summerville Boy, Finian’s Oscar, Yorkhill and L’Ami Serge to name a few.
Have a read of the betting guide and then check the going tomorrow before making a decision. At the moment it is Soft but if it goes Good to Soft then we are in new territory as it hasn’t been that in the last 10 years! Let’s pray for a bit of rain.
This looks like a classic race. It is very close here between Defi du seuil and Lostintranslation. Although I usually back Phillip Hobbs runners in races such as this on this occasion I am going to go for the favourably weighted LOSTINTRANSLATION. This horse has the measure of Black Op and On The Blind Side and re-opposes both on similar terms as when beating them last time out.
Venetia Williams trained ASO has some very strong form at the track, he was 8 lengths off of Un de Sceaux in the Ryanair last year and also had a recent victory in the Ladbrokes handicap Chase at Newbury beating Touch Kick who went on to finish 3rd in the Welsh National last week. With the Williams stable banging in winners over the Christmas period this is value.
WHOLESTONE underperformed last time out at Newbury, however the trip was 3m and Wholestone clearly performs at 2m4F. Indeed last year Wholestone flopped and then came back to win at Cheltenham over 2m4F. In recent runnings Wholestone beat Old Guard by 74L and Thomas Campbell by 25L. Clyne rates as the main danger as he is in form and beat Wholestone over 3m by over 20L at Newbury.
I think I wisely chose not to drink last night, looks to be a lovely day! There are 3 races at Cheltenham today to consider.
- 1:25 The Dipper Novices Chase
- 2:00 The Betbright Chase
- 3:10 The Relkeel Hurdle
1:25 The Dipper Novices Chase
The betting guide is up for this one and it does a good job separating out the contenders. There appears to be only one winner from this race and that is DEFI DU SEUIL. His form is good and fits the betting guide having raced in December, won the last race and at least placed on Good to Soft in a previous race. Also the SP looks as though it will be below 7/2 and although favourites are less inclined to win here it is not by much.
1pt win DEFI DU SEUIL
2:00 The Betbright Chase
The betting guide steers us away from the favourites and into the arms of Happy Diva and Give me a copper. Both tick the myriad of boxes for this race but I am going to plump for GIVE ME A COPPER. He is within the age and OR range, raced in December (winning that race) and placed on Good to Soft previously. He is not Top Weight but is not too far away and is an Irish horse.
1pt Win GIVE ME A COPPER
3:10 The Relkeel Hurdle
The betting guide seems to destroy most of the field as most seem to be too old, haven’t had their last race in November, did not place last time out and haven’t placed on Good to Soft going! This leaves us with a clear contender of THOMAS CAMPBELL. He is the right age, weight and has placed on Good to Soft before. He placed last time out in an early December race and has a Sadler’s Wells pedigree. Nicky Henderson also trains him and Henderson does well at this race.
1pt Win THOMAS CAMPBELL