Sometimes I feel that my tipping using historical stats is a lot like my sons swimming. He thrashes around a lot, legs kicking, putting lots of energy into it, but when he looks up he has gone nowhere! Anyway, today could be different!
There are only 2 races really worth having a look at, Buveur D’Air is nailed on to win the Contenders Hurdle at some ridiculously low price so not even worth bothering. This leaves the Scilly Isles Novices Chase and the Heroes Handicap hurdle.
2:25 Scilly Isles Novices Chase
The betting guide predicts a close race and when I looked at this, early in the morning the going was good to soft, however it has now changed to soft which gives a clear leader in the stats.
VINNDICATION appears to be the one to beat, the right age and weight, won last out in December, the favourite in a race where they are more likely to win and runs very well on Soft going (5 from 5).
1pt Win VINNDICATION
3:00 Heroes Handicap Hurdle
The betting guide does well to pick out a few horses to look at, including some at large prices.
The horses that float to the top using the betting guide are Casko D’Airy, Folsom Blue, Flemcara and Mr Clarkson. Two of these should be considered for the win and the others for an each way.
Favourites rarely win at this race and chances are only slightly improved by it being soft going. At the moment of writing Casko D’Airy is the favourite which is why I will be going for FOLSOM BLUE for the win. The betting guide stats suggest that a horse that did not win or place last time out should be considered and FOLSOM BLUE came 8th in the last race at Chepstow, before that race a couple of 4ths and 1sts. This suggests that he should bounce back, well hopefully.
Mr Clarkson has a fair run of form previous to this race and perhaps should be considered for an each way go. He runs well on soft, is the right age and weight and OR and didn’t win last out but went well on soft going a few races back.
1pt Win FOLSOM BLUE
0.5pt e/w Mr Clarkson