Month: March 2019

Thursday’s picks at #chepstowraces, #sedgefieldraces and #ludlowraces

The %win return / % strike rate method is still chugging on nicely using Adrian Massey’s data so I thought I would try and add something new to it and see how it goes. At the moment we are just looking at Trainers who have horses racing, but how about Jockeys? Some jockeys are course specialists and hired by stables because of this. Some of them have some very good %win return / strike rate stats and must be worth a shot alongside the trainers. So I will start adding some in, particularly on days with not many bets, and see how it goes.

Trainers

Sedgefield – N Mullholland [43% Strike rate / 138% win return]

  • 2.05 Molliana 2/1

Chepstow – T Lacey [29% Strike rate / 305% win return]

  • 2.50 Fair Kate 5/2
  • 4.00 Alberto’s Dream 10/1 (E/W)

Jockeys

Ludlow – B Geraghty [42% Strike Rate / 124% win return]

  • 3.00 Allelu Alleluia 6/1 (e/w)
  • 4.10 I’dliketheoption 7/1 (e/w)
  • 4.45 Musical Slave 4/5

Mondays %win return/strike rate pick at #plumptonraces

Out of the shed load of horses using this method on Saturday I just about broke even! Too many horses perhaps, I have seen other betting methods which say not to bet at the weekend, probably because of this problem.

Anyway from lots to one. A King has the stats required at Plumpton today and his sole horse is THE CULL BANK in the 2:50.

Good Luck

Baz’s Saturday Yankee: alleviate that Cheltenham hangover #Uttoxeterraces #Kemptonraces

14:25 Uttoxeter: DR DES is the e/w bet of the day in receipt of weight all round particularly from the well fancied De Rasher Counter who finished behind DR DES last time and is 10lb worse off. Lough Derg Farmer is another well handicapped sort worth watching.

Midlands national: MILANSBAR can take this, if he does Bryony Frost will be approaching immortality. Folsom Blue must go close.

14:05 Kempton TIMOTEO
14:40 Kempton BURROWS EDGE
15:15 Kempton Brother TED

Bob’s Saturday picks using the %win return/strike method at #kemptonraces #uttoxeterraces #fontwellraces #newcastleraces

The system is chugging along nicely, don’t think it is ever going to be spectacular but it brings the money in regularly.

The following horses have trainers with a 30%+ Strike Rate at the course and a 100%+ win return. There are a lot of horses today, so I have added in brackets the Jockeys %win return/strike rate for the course.

Kempton – N Henderson

  • 1:30 – Heatstroke 13/8 (N De Boinville 104/29)
  • 2:40 – Burrows Edge 5/2 (N De Boinville 104/29)
  • 3:50 – The Cashel Man 13/8 (J McGrath 137/15)
  • 5:00 – Shiskin 4/6 (N De Boinville 104/29)

Fontwell – A Honeyball

  • 1:40 Duhallow Gesture 6/4 (R Dingle No Ratings)
  • 2:15 Le Couer Net 15/8 (R Dingle No Ratings)
  • 2:50 Shapiro 6/4 (R Dingle No Ratings)

Uttoxeter – D Skelton

  • 2:25 Aintree My Dream 12/1 (H Skelton 150/35) (EACH WAY)
  • 3:00 Shannon Bridge 20/1 (H Skelton 150/35) (EACH WAY)
  • 3:35 Get On The Yager 16/1 (H Skelton 150/35) (EACH WAY)
  • 5:20 Tiger Alley 15/8 (H Skelton 150/35)

Uttoxeter – G Elliott

  • 3:35 Folsom Blue 13/2 (D Russell No Rating)

Newcastle – M Scudamore

  • 5:30 Ask Himself 11/4 (B Powell No Rating)

Baz Picks for Day 4 #Cheltenhamgoldcup

So many decent horses who have fundamental flaws is the story of this years Gold Cup IMHO. Bristol de Mai only wins at Haydock but is a real threat in the mud as is Native River who has just looked a couple of yards short this season. Clan des Oboeux would have to go to new level to win another huge race and Anibelle Fly is coming back to form after winning a big race in Ireland last year.

I am having an E/W crack at THISTLECRACK who can cap an outrageous career by taking this and reports that he is back to his best gather confidence further. I also think Presenting Percy has been schooled for this and may well be the best of the shorter priced favourites.

1pt E/W THISTLECRACK

1pt Win PRESENTING PERCY

Bob’s #GoldCup pick at the #cheltenhamfestival

Okay so today has gone well, both the horses I picked came in. Baz did better as well, so no need to bet on politics tonight!

Just the Gold Cup left for me, I don’t focus on the other races on the last day.

3:30 – Gold Cup

The historical stats actually do a good job of bringing out a leading contender. Being a precious distance or course winner does not seem to actually make any difference here. Placing on the same going is preferable as is winning last time out between Dec-Feb. The current favourite Presenting Percy has not placed on Good to Soft, is not Irish and doesn’t have any Sadler’s Wells DNA in him. Native River and Thistlecrack did not win last time out and Thistlecrack is getting a bit old to win as no horse over 9 years old has won this the last 10 times out. Might Bite promises much and has not delivered lately and I cannot see that changing in this field. So who am I going for …….

BELSHILL is 9 years old, has an OR of 165+, won last time out in February, is Irish, placed on Good to Soft and has Sadler’s Wells pedigree. The SP is also in the right area. Ruby Walsh is in the seat and looking for another win.

So there you go another years worth of sifting through reams of data is nearly over! Good luck to whoever you bet on.

Baz picks day 3 #Cheltenhamfestival

13:30 JLT Chase

I backed LOSTINTRANSLATION in the Big Dipper at Cheltenham this year and although he got 3lb off of the Phillip Hobbs 2017 Cheltenham winner the selection looked to like the hill more than his rival.

14:10 Pertemps Network 3m

Gordon Elliot 1-2 last year and SIRE DU BERLAIS has done enough this year to warrant favouritism.

14:50 Ryanair Chase

Very close between lots of them, Un de Seaux may be 11 but still has potential however after watching it time after time this season I agree with Bob and reckon FRODON has the best chance.

15:30 Stayers

Again agreeing with Bob and backing PAISLEY PARK

Bob on Day 3 of the #chletenhamfestival

Saved again by one race! Namely TOPOF THE GAME came in and covered all my other bets. Not too many races that I like to look at on Thursday just the Ryanair Chase and the Stayers.

2:50 Ryanair Chase

The stats suggest this is between 4 horses, footpad, Road to Respect, Un De Sceaux and Frodon.

Un De Sceaux is probably too old for this race. No horse over the age of 9 has won this in the last 10 years. Footpad is not a distance winner so this will be held against him.

Road to Respect has not raced on the going before but does have form on Good and Soft. Frodon has good form on Good to Soft but not as great on Soft. The partnership of Bryony Frost and Frodon does seem to have worked well and so I am going to use that as the slight edge that FRODON needs to win.

1pt Win – FRODON

3:30 – Stayers

All the stats point towards a PAISLEY PARK win, cannot see who else could win.

1pt Win – PAISLEY PARK