Month: April 2019

Wandering to #wolverhamptonraces with Bob

So first day of the new system.

Wolverhampton – K McLintock 30% Strike rate 140% Win Return

  • 5:10 Grey Mist 5/2 won last race and this is down in class.

Southwell – S Crisford 32% Strike Rate 168% Win Return

  • Both his runners are having their first run of the season so no joy there!

Windsor – S Bin Suroor 31% Strike rate 127% Win Return

  • Again first runs of the season

So just the one today, but that was the point of the filters!

Changes to the Strike Rate / Win Return system

At the moment the system means that you bet on every horse if the Trainer has a 30% Strike Rate or above and 100% Win Return or above at a particular course.

This did work to a point but towards the end of the jump season and the beginning of the flat it just refused to work and profits fell.

So I have looked at all the data from those races and come up with some changes to the system which will mean that there are less qualifying bets but they are more likely to win.

Only horses whose trainers have +30% strike rate and +100% Win Return using Adrian Massey’s data for that course will qualify. Then apply the changes below.

  • No bets on horses with odds above 4-1 (Yes this does mean the odd big win will go awry but it will cut out a lot of the losers)
  • Double the bet on horses that qualify with odds below 2-1
  • Flat Racing
    • No bets on first race of the season
    • No bets on horses going up a class
  • National Hunt Chases
    • Must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the previous race it must have changed class, either up or down.
  • Hurdle Races
    • It must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the last race it must stay at the same class or have gone lower.

By my calculations that should have put the system at +37 points rather than +21.

Bob with a lonely stat at #Haydockraces

The sole pick came in yesterday in fine style. Lets hope the stats keep fighting back today.

Another sole pick today – but I will try and do a 10 year work up on the main race at Sandown.

Haydock – H Palmer 30% Strike rate 226% Win Return

  • 3:45 Abr Al Hadood 12/1 Worth an each way punt, it has a good draw as well.

A sole pick at #perthraces on Friday

I didn’t have time to put up the picks this morning but had a couple of winners which you can see on the bet history.

Perth – P Bowen 38% Strike Rate 155% Win Return

  • 5:15 Equus Dancer

I have started to analyse the Strike Rate Win Return system in order to start putting some filters in to make it more profitable. Results soon.

Wednesday picks at #fontwellraces and #perthraces

Bank Holiday out of the way, back to normality I hope.

Fontwell – A Honeyball 31% Strike Rate 121% Win Return

  • 3:10 Soulsaver 7/2

Fontwell – P Nicholls 37% Strike Rate 103% Win Return

  • 3:45 Risk and Roll 5/2

Perth – D Pipe 40% Strike Rate 138% Win Return

  • 3:00 Eur Gone West 9/2

Perth – P Bowen 39% Strike rate 160% Win Return

  • 3:30 More Buck’s 7/1
  • 5:10 Curious Carlos 7/2

Stats obtained from Adrian Massey’s website which are based upon a 10 year trend at the course.

#Eastermondayraces here we come

Fakenham – S Edmunds 32% Strike Rate 237% Win Return

  • 1:45 Red Royalist 6/4
  • 4:40 Figarella Borget 14/1 Might be worth an e/w punt but form not great

Plumpton – A King 36% Strike Rate 117% Win Return

  • 1:50 Praeceps 1/1 Although form hasn’t been great, Praeceps is a proven class 4 winner and has placed in higher class runnings compared to others in this race.
  • 2:25 Wilde Spirit 7/1 Might be worth an e/w punt as stepping up in trip and is related to good stayers.

Redcar – W Haggas 34% Strike Rate 124 % Win Return

  • 1:55 Country 11/10 Need to keep faith with Haggas who has done me no favours lately but the stats must kick back in soon.

Wolverhampton – S Bin Suroor 35% Strike Rate 103% Win Return

  • 3:20 Diamond Oasis 15/8 Another who hasn’t been a great return for me is Bin Suroor but the stats are there for a reason, they must kick in sometime.

The stats are based upon 10 years at the course in question and can be obtained from Adrian Masseys Website.

Bob wishes everyone a #happyeaster #dayofrest

There is only one word for yesterday – Abysmal. I have seen other systems suggesting not to look at the flat until May, maybe that is what we will take away for next year. Also I may have to look at some filters to further narrow any horses down, we shall see.

After so many horses running using the system yesterday, it is no surprise that there are none today. Gives us a chance to lick our wounds and look forward to tomorrow.

Baz angles for longer odds e/w bets #Haydockraces

205 Haydock: this one has a few possibles but I had a good look back at the form and discovered RED TORNADO finished a close third to Dino Velvet at Stratford. Dino Velvet then went on to finish 2nd to Verdana Blue in the Scottish Champion Hurdle so a possible there at double figure odds while writing. Possible danger here is the Horse Cause Toujours who has a case of seconditis albeit once to Grand Sancy.

240 Haydock: THE PADDY PIE currently 4-1 narrowly edges Sumkingofking as the selection due to a recent course win and consistent placing form.

315 Haydock: LYGON ROCK currently 7-1 ridden by Richard Johnson and very well treated in the weights looks like a chance for an e/w punt to me.

Bob hunting for some golden eggs at the #Easterraces

Well yesterday was a bit of a disaster again, with only one horse winning. Lets hope that the stats bounce back today.

Newton Abbot – N Henderson 37% Strike Rate 118% Win Return

  • 3:20 Falco Blitz 8/15

Carlisle – K Dalgleish 33% Strike Rate 161% Win Return

  • 5:10 Tonicngin 7/4

Musselburgh – G Moss 35% Strike Rate 147% Win Return

  • 1:50 Porth Swtan 7/2

Musselburgh – W Haggas 34% Strike Rate 138% Win Return

  • 2:25 Politicise 11/4

Nottingham – S Bin Suroor 33% Strike Rate 114% Win Return

  • 5:05 Making History 7/4

Nottingham – J Candlish 31% Strike Rate 290% Win Return

  • 6:05 Confrontational 5/1

Brighton – J Berry 31% Strike Rate 224% Win Return

  • 6:50 Roy Rocket 13/2

Lots to have a look at and make decisions on.