Month: May 2019

Tuesday pick at #redcarraces

Well Sunday showed that there definitely is a big gap between 25+strike rate and 30%+ strike rate trainers. Skelton looked as though he was going to win all of the races entered but withdrew the last two due to going changes. Oh well that was the end of my yankee.

Going to stick with 30%+ strike rates from now on, trialled 25%+ and Saturday showed what a nightmare it is.

Redcar – W Haggas 36% Strike Rate124% Win Return

  • 4:20 Hamish 8/11 (2pt bet)

Sunday at #fontwellraces & #uttoxeterraces

The addition of trainers 25%-30% strike rate in the system is beginning to topple it. Will keep it going another week and then go back to just 30%+ trainers.

Fontwell – P Nicholls 36% Strike rate 100% Win Return

  • 2:45 Tomorrow Mystery 1/2 (2pt Bet)
  • 3:15 Risk and Roll 8/11 (2pt Bet)

Uttoxeter – D Skelton 31% Strike rate 118% Win Return

  • 2:55 Solomon Grey 8/11 (2pt Bet)
  • 3:25 Simply Loveleh 3/1
  • 4:30 Blairs Cove 7/4 (2pt Bet)
  • 5:05 Bandsman 6/5 (2pt Bet)

Bob now has a trio at #haydockraces and more …

Edited as odds have changed.

Last couple of runners using the new system have been a bit of a downer. Was always going to perhaps go downhill when lowering the strike rate, but we shall persevere for a while otherwise we just wont get any bets!

Haydock – W Haggas 28% Strike Rate 116 Win Return

  • 2:50 Awe 7/2 (Was originally at 4/1 so not in original post)
  • 3:25 Calyx 1/6 (2pt bet)
  • 4:35 Island of Life 10/3

Cartmel – J O’Neill 28% Strike Rate 129% Win Return

  • 2:05 Young Wolf 8/15 (2pt Bet)

Ffos Las – N Henderson 39% Strike Rate 107% Win Return

  • 7:05 Ballycaines 3/1

Might be worth doing a double with the 2pt bets, not going to get much otherwise.

Baz ponders Irish 2000 Guineas and depicts a Phoenix from the flames at the Curragh. #irish2000guineas

Magna Grecia romped to victory at Newmarket in the English equivalent of this race and has to be fancied due to Aiden O’Brien being so successful in doubling up Guineas winners in recent years.

However the time appears to be right for Too Darn Hot who according to Willy Haggas was only 85% for the last run and has apparently come on so quickly an attempt to wait until the Royal meeting in June has been hastily abandoned.

This is all well and good but at 11/8 i’m steering clear. PHOENIX OF SPAIN was a head behind Magna Grecia at Newmarket and only 1 3/4 lengths second to Too Darn Hot at Doncaster. With a current SP of 18-1 and EW extra potential around 14’s this has got to be a safer bet than lumping on a sweaty over-hyped fave. There I’ve said it and probably ruined it now.

2pts EW (or EW extra) PHOENIX OF SPAIN 3:35 Curragh

Bob with a pick at #leicesterraces and a system change

The lack of bets has made me reconsider the strike rate % which at the moment stands at 30%. With the increased filtering it should cut out too many problems if we go to 25%. Today I used exactly that to pick 2x Skelton winners so I think we will run with it from now on.

Typically even with the lowering of the % I can only find one bet for tomorrow.

Leicester – R Beckett 38% Strike Rate 274% Win Return

  • 8:45 Fearless Warrior 4/1

A few tips from Bob at #Perthraces and #Fontwellraces on Thursday

Well Igor had it wrapped up until the last hurdle. Oh well.

Anyway, I have managed to get more than one tip today! Just.

Perth – D Pipe 39% Strike Rate 136% Win Return

  • 4:15 Legal History 10/11 (2pt bet) [Placed last time out]

Fontwell – P Nicholls 36% Strike Rate 100% Win Return

  • 7:15 Wonderful Champ 8/11 (2pt Bet) [Placed at least once in the last 3 races, didn’t place last time but this is way back down in class]
  • 7:15 Southfield Vic 6/4 (2pt Bet) [Don’t think this one will actually race as it won today at Newton Abbot]

Bob with a single at #newtonabbotraces

No surprise that Barbados Blue did win the last race tipped but it didn’t really get us anywhere.

Struggling to find bets before the filtering at the moment, a lot of trainers not running horses at their better tracks. However, I do have another Henderson one to give a go.

Newton Abbot – N Henderson Strike rate 37% Win Return 118%

  • 3:55 Igor 6/5 (2pt Bet) – Placed in one out of the last 3 races. Didn’t place last time but has gone down a class.