Month: May 2019

Baz looking at long-shots in the big handicaps #Ascotraces #Haydockraces

The 4:00PM at Ascot is a large flat handicap over 7f on sticky testing ground. Therefore I’m looking towards the bottom of the weights as stats suggest a good return against SP for this scenario.

0.5pt e/w TAUREAN STAR fits the bill exactly and has form on sticky ground at Goodwood. Form is a concern hence the hopeful 25-1 SP but there are excuses wrt surfaces and the drop in weight make this a worthy punt.

If your looking for something more proven then I cannot resist my usual punt on RIPP ORF who won this race last year and has about as much chance as any of managing it again.

0.5pt e/w RIPP ORF 4PM Ascot

0.5pt e/w TAUREAN STAR 4PM Ascot

At Haydock the 3:10 I’ve boiled it down to a three way split between FLYING TIGER, CHRISTOPHER WOOD and JOHN CONSTABLE. The latter won last year but has been off form preceding a recent wind-op. The middle one has a good record with current trainer and has to be feared at time of writing as the ATR market movers page shows it 27% green. The long-shot FLYING TIGER is in receipt of weight all round and at 20-1 probably the safest play in a very capable field.

0.5pt e/w FLYING TIGER 3:10 Haydock

0.5pt e/w JOHN CONSTABLE 3:10 Haydock

Bob feeling lonely with one tip at #warwickraces

Not having much luck with the Bin Suroor horses lately, hopefully that will change soon as the stats are good.

Henderson has a lot of horses running at Warwick today but only one of any real note that qualifies through the version 2 betting system.

Warwick – N Henderson 33% Strike Rate 111% Win Return

  • 8:30 Hurling Magic 5/2

#Chesterraces for a win with Bob!

Nice win with Butlergrove King today, started out at 13/8 which made it a 2 point bet and then it drifted out to 4/1! Lets see what Wednesday has to offer. Have had to discount a lot as they did not fit the new parameters.

Chester – A P O’Brien 40% Strike Rate 107% Win Return

  • 2:25 Secret Thought 3/1
  • 3:35 Norway 3/1

Over the fences at #Uttoxeterraces

The new system is still working well 3 out of 4 so far and 5 points up. No bets on the flat, so lets see how the new system works on the jumps.

Uttoxeter – D Skelton 31% Strike Rate 121% Win Return

  • 3:25 Solomon Grey (Placed last time out) 5/4 (2pt bet)
  • 4:35 Theatre Bar (Won last time out) 11/4
  • 5:05 Goodthyneaway (Won last time out) 11/4

Friday Frolics at #Newcastleraces

Well 2 wins from 2 and 5.5 points up! The new system has started well. Lets hope it continues.

Newcastle – Sir M Stoute 39% Strike Rate 171% Win Return

  • 5:50 Shareef Star (raced this season (7th), at same class) 8/11 2pt bet
  • 6:25 Deal A Dollar (raced this season (2nd), at same class) 6/4 2pt bet

#Redcarraces hosts the only bet

It was good to see that the refinements to the system meant that the only bet we have had so far has come in. Since then opportunities have been non-existent, might have to keep a note on 25% Strike Rate+ just to see how that goes in order to increase the number of horse. However, it will be no good if they all lose! Only one bet today.

Redcar – W Haggas 35% Strike Rate 125% Win Return

  • Cristal Breeze 6/4 (Already raced this season (4th), this is not up a class and odds are below 2/1 so that means a 2pt bet)