Month: October 2019

Bob looks historically at the #westyorkshirehurdle

The betting guide has been updated for this weekend so lets see what it tells us.

HorseOR 140-164Non-FavouriteLast race last seasonGoing WinnerOdds below 11/2Top WeightAlleged Pedigree
UknowhatimeanharryYYYYYYY
Lord NapierYYY
Aye RightYY
BallyandyYYY
Le BreuilYYYY
Teescomponents LadYY
The Worlds EndYYYY
Two TaffsYYY

Historically, Uknowhatimeanharry literally ticks all the boxes. The early favourite Ballyandy does not have those historical components and even if Uknowhatimeanharry became the favourite this would still leave him miles ahead of the rest. The only question is, does he have enough left in the tank as this is likely to be his last season. In the last 10 years when the going has been Good to Soft this is when his age group have won so that is hopeful. If the going moves too much away from this there could be problems.

Verdict: If the going remains Good to Soft then UKNOWHATIMEANHARRY is the one who can take this race.

Looking back at the betting system

Now the jump season has started it is time to look back at the betting system which tailed off when the jump season ended. I will start using it again to provide bets each day and see where that takes us.

Only horses whose trainers have +30% strike rate and +100% Win Return using Adrian Massey’s data for that course will qualify. Then apply the changes below.

  • No bets on horses with odds above 4-1 (Yes this does mean the odd big win will go awry but it will cut out a lot of the losers)
  • Double the bet on horses that qualify with odds below 2-1
  • Flat Racing
    • No bets on first race of the season
    • No bets on horses going up a class
  • National Hunt Chases
    • Must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the previous race it must have changed class, either up or down.
  • Hurdle Races
    • It must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the last race it must stay at the same class or have gone lower.

#oldroanchase update

The going has changed with all the rain that has fallen lately and is now “Soft”. This is likely to make a difference for our two main protoagonists Kalashnikov and Frodon.

They have both won on Soft Ground but with the less weight on Kalashnikov it could well help. Forest Bihan will not be helped by the soft ground on a longer trip than he has done before either.

I still think that FRODON will win but it is going to be close.

Bob looks ahead to the #oldroanchase

Thought I would have an early look at the Old Roan Chase, which in my mind is the first proper NH race of the season. I may have to change this later in the week if the going or the betting changes considerably.

The Betting Guide gives us a number of indicators to look at, so lets see how they fit to the horses.

HorseOR 150-169Irish?Last Race Mar-MayLost last race?Distance WinnerGoing WinnerP Nicholls10lbs within top weight
FrodonYYYYYY
Saint CalvadosYYY
KalashnikovYYYYY
McgroartyYYY
Born SurvivorYYYY
Forest BihanY
BigmartreYYY
UltragoldYYYY
Flying AngelYYYY
Go LongYYYY

Looking at the indicators above, it shows it could be a close race with the two main protagonists being Frodon and Kalashnikov, separated only by one having Paul Nicholls as a trainer.

The trainer weighting probably will not make too much difference as P Nicholls has only won it twice in the last 10 years, all other winners had different trainers. Also the weighting given towards the horse being Irish would be only a small amount given 60% of winners were Irish leaving 40% that were not.

The main thing that separates the two is the weight, Frodon is Top Weight by a long way, Kalashnikov is 14lbs lighter and only one horse in the last 10 years has won the race being that much lighter. Of course that said only one Top Weight has managed to win this in the last 10 years as well!

The favourite has only won once in the last 10 years so I think as long as Frodon stays second favourite then he will be the one I go for.

If the going or the odds change I will be back!

VERDICT: FRODON to WIN

Class 1 Hurdling at #KemptonRaces

Been a while since I have looked at Massey’s Website of stats and today sounds like a good one to have a go with.

There are two Class 1 Listed Hurdle Races going on today, the Matchbook VIP Hurdle and the Matchbook Novices Hurdle.

Lets take the Novices Hurdle first which sets off at 3:20.

Lets start with Strike Rate for the trainers:

  • Out of the 6 trainers with horses running there is only one with a decent strike rate of 21.3% and that is Paul Nicholls. Most of the others are below 10%.

Okay how about the jockeys

  • The stand out Jockey for this course is Harry Cobden with a strike rate of 25% and a win return above 100%.

Both P Nicholls and H Cobden are together with their horse Birds of Prey who at the moment is 11/2 and probably worth the punt.

Verdict: Birds of Prey to win

In the VIP hurdle which is at 4:25 we have many of the same protagonists and therefore I am going to stick with the same combination of trainer and jockey and go for Grand Sancy.

Verdict: Grand Sancy to win

Baz on the Durham National: a proper handicap chase (Class 2 3m5f)

#Durhamnational

Sedgefield is the venue for Sunday’s early season jumps punting and this ten runner field on soft ground is a very tricky betting contest. This is an ideal cognitive workout for the big chases later in the season and todays race is full of known horses with decent form.

Probably the best known is Kingswell Theatre who won at Cheltenham a couple of Novembers ago and finished 6th to Tiger Roll in at the festival. A recent 2nd at Ffos Las at the end of last year means this 10 year old would be unbeatable if on his best form.

MORNEY WING, another 10 year old, has won on a seasonal reappearance before and last year came back to finish third in the Eider at Newcastle after winter victories at Fontwell and a big Betfair chase at Sandown. The selection was pulled up in the Ayr gold cup and would be more than capable of making amends today.

Others to consider are Chasma who is widely tipped in the press as will appreciate the step up in trip, although at time of writing horse is on the drift. Vinnie Lewis is another danger and loves Sedgefield but just doesn’t seem to have progressed into the sort of horse people hoped. That has not stopped him grabbing favouritism for the race at time of writing and rates the main danger based on efforts two years ago.

MORNEY WING 7-1 0.5pt e/w