Month: November 2019

Christopher Wood to score today (one of them at least)

Today is one of those days where Christopher Wood not only runs at Wincanton but is also on the team sheet for Burnley in todays game against West Ham. I’d get a quid on the double (win and score anytime), it returns about £20. Admittedly I’d be far more confident of the New Zealander coming good rather than the thoroughbred although I’m still looking at CHRISTOPHER WOOD to maybe challenge today.

He has had a wind op and goes very well on softer ground, with Bryony Frost on board there is a chance. The other Nicholls runner Grand Sancy has landed some big prizes but seems to have failed to convince recently and the fall at Kempton looks like it has left a big question mark over the form. Beat the Judge was only 6l behind Fusil Raffles in the last outing and although the view is that the favourite was trotting home that does give Beat the Judge a 6lb pull.

In all likelihood this is a favourites race to lose with Fusil Raffles defeating a horse with a 149 rating at Punchestown when rated 145 and that is looking like a good mark

Baz still chasing old fancies but could there be a sting in the tail? #badgerbeerssilvertrophy

Although Present man represents a winning Bryony/Nicholls combination I’m taking the chance that things might be a tad more difficult against a wealth of talented runners at Wincanton today.

Just a Sting is very well handicapped getting 5lb from the likes of The Young Master and in terms of weight is very well treated. In terms of Each Way value though I cannot see past ROCK THE KASBAH. The Hobbs and Johnson combo came good in early season last year and was my tip for the national before being brought down mid race. He gets over half a stone from the likes of Cobra de Mai and The Young Master despite beating them easily in previous outings.

The Hobbs charge goes well fresh and represents a good betting angle for a horse who will again go for the National I reckon as he was schooled for the big race for the second half of last season.

1pt win JUST A STING 5-1 general

1pt e/w and e/w extra ROCK THE KASBAH 10-1 general

Bob looks at the main #wincantonraces

There are 3 main NH races on today at Wincanton, The Rising Stars, The Elite Hurdle and the Badger Ales Trophy.

All the betting guides have been updated looking at the last 10 years worth of winners.

SO what do they tell us?

Well in the Badger Ales Trophy the horse that fits the profile best is PRESENT MAN, a P Nicholls horse who is a course and Distance winner.

In the Elite Hurdle it is again a P Nicholls horse who has the better claims historically. A small field means top weight should win and that would be GRAND SANCY, it also is not the favourite and is a course and distance winner.

I am going to stick with P Nicholls in the Rising Stars who has IF YOU SAY RUN going. Reserve Tank looks a big threat but I have a feeling P Nicholls will clean up today.

VERDICT:

2:25 – IF YOU SAY RUN

3:00 – GRAND SANCY

3:35 – PRESENT MAN

Thursday’s Tips at #marketrasenraces and #sedgefieldraces

The first tip doesn’t follow the system but Julian Smith does not have many runners and with a strike rate of 47% and a win return of over 500% you have to pay attention to what he runs at Market Rasen.

3:50 – Caro Des Flos e/w

Anthony Honeyball is another who doesn’t run as many as some other trainers and has a good strike rate and win return.

2:45 – Sojourn to win

Meanwhile at Sedgefield we have Henry Oliver.

4:00 – Darlyn to win

Wednesday’s Tips at #musselburghraces

Getting a lot of second places through the system and historical betting so we are in the right area, just need a bit more luck to convert them into first places.

Todays Tips at Musselburgh where K Dagleish is the trainer with the good stats.

3:35 – Goldencard

3:55 – Gennady

If odds fall below 2/1 then make it a 2pt bet.

Will history repeat itself in the #haldongoldcup

HorseAge 6/7OR 150-159Last Race Mar-MayDid not win last raceGoing WinnerTrainer PN or TGFavouriteNot Top Weight4/1 or belowSadlers Wells Pedigree
JanikaYYYYYY
God’s OwnYYYYYYY
DolosYYYYYY
CharbelYYYY
DestrierYYYYYYY
LalorYYYYYY

The number of runners has been cut to 6 which is still 1 more than last year. We are left with some very good runners so lets see if we can find something that fits the historical stats.

God’s Own still fits this race nicely and that is probably why he has won this wice. Now will he win a third? Not sure to be honest, the small field has allowed older horses to win in the past so he is worth considering as an each way.

For me DOLOS looks to be the one to go for, fits the profile as well as God’s Own and has had a run this year which should be beneficial on the soft ground. Odds have slightly gone out since I started writing this to 5/1 but I reckon it will swing back in. I can see Destrier putting up a good fight and I would not be surprised if it won either.

Verdict: DOLOS to win, God’s Own Each Way