Bob looks at the #GrandNational

Always a bit of a lottery, you would think that the historical stats would be garbage. However, there are some interesting trends that come up and help to narrow down the field.

  • Most of the past winners ran their last race in March and did not win that race, so we are looking for a horse that can bounce back from defeat.
  • As it is such a unique race looking at course and distance stats is a waste of time, however past winners have mostly won on the same going as the race.
  • Horses with a Sadler’s Wells pedigree have done 4x better than horses with other pedigrees in the last 10 years.
  • And perhaps the most interesting of the lot is that in the last 10 years there have been 10 different trainers. This suggests that it is a negative to have been a past winning trainer and a positive if you have not.

So what does all this philosophising come up with? There a a small number of horses that stand out in the stats

  • Lake View Lad 18/1
  • Rock The Kasbah 18/1
  • Regal Encore 80/1
  • Magic of Light 150/1
  • Monbeg Notorious 66/1
  • Tea for Two 50/1
  • Livelovelaugh 100/1
  • Walk In The Mill 25/1

Although in the betting guide I suggest that SP is not a good place to look at, we are going to have to use it to cut this lot down. Only 1 horse has won at 100/1 + in the last 10 years, so we can probably discount Magic of Light and Livelovelaugh. The average SP of 33/1 has a standard deviation of 28 so we can justifiably count out Monbeg Notorious and Regal Encore.

This leaves us with

  • Lake View Lad 18/1
  • Rock The Kasbah 18/1
  • Tea for Two 50/1
  • Walk In The Mill 25/1

Lake View Lad certainly has some good form over 3m+ and lately has always finished in the top 3.

Rock The Kasbah’s form is a bit up and down lately but has won a 3m3f race that Lake View Lad hasn’t.

Tea for Two has not done well in the couple of 3m3f races entered and even over lesser distances is not great.

Walk In The Mill has also finished mainly in the places lately but not really tested over long distances.

I cannot really split Rock The Kasbah and Lake View Lad and so as it is the Grand National I shall go for both! Think I might also have a cheeky bet on Magic Of Light for appearing in my first list with such a large SP.

Good Luck

1pt E/W LAKE VIEW LAD

1pt E/W ROCK THE KASBAH

0.5pt E/W MAGIC OF LIGHT

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