Changes to the Strike Rate / Win Return system

At the moment the system means that you bet on every horse if the Trainer has a 30% Strike Rate or above and 100% Win Return or above at a particular course.

This did work to a point but towards the end of the jump season and the beginning of the flat it just refused to work and profits fell.

So I have looked at all the data from those races and come up with some changes to the system which will mean that there are less qualifying bets but they are more likely to win.

Only horses whose trainers have +30% strike rate and +100% Win Return using Adrian Massey’s data for that course will qualify. Then apply the changes below.

  • No bets on horses with odds above 4-1 (Yes this does mean the odd big win will go awry but it will cut out a lot of the losers)
  • Double the bet on horses that qualify with odds below 2-1
  • Flat Racing
    • No bets on first race of the season
    • No bets on horses going up a class
  • National Hunt Chases
    • Must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the previous race it must have changed class, either up or down.
  • Hurdle Races
    • It must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the last race it must stay at the same class or have gone lower.

By my calculations that should have put the system at +37 points rather than +21.

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