A Historical Look at the Prelude Handicap Hurdle #national hunt #marketrasenraces

The National Hunt season will kick off soon, before that we have the Prelude Handicap Hurdle. This gives us a good chance to get our eye in!

The betting guide based around an analysis of the last 10 years can be found here.

There are a few patterns that could be useful in whittling down the field.

Firstly: No horse under 5 or older than 8 has won this race in the last 10 years. So we are going to be quite brutal and cross off Jacamar, The Gipper, Giving Glances, Applesandpierres and Go West Young Man.

Secondly: In terms of form, horses need to have raced in Jul-Sep but not necessarily have won. The following horses we can cross off as they ran outside of the period mentioned, Mohaayed, Gumball, Earlofthecotswolds, Storm Rising and A Little Chaos.

Thirdly: Irish horses are prevalent in the winners in the last 10 years so again being quite brutal we shall cross off anything not Irish. That would be Azzuri, Scarlet Dragon and Flashing Glance.

That leaves us with 3 protagonists: Lucky Icon, See The Sea and Definitelyanoscar.

Those horses with a Sadlers Wells heritage had a definite advantage over others looking at the winners. That will take out See The Sea and leave the other two.

Not much to choose between these two but Lucky Icon has some good results on Good going in the last few outings so if the going stays that way I am going to plump for that.

Verdict: LUCKY ICON for the win

EDIT: Since I have written this Lucky Icon has been pulled out of the race, so I will be going for DEFINITELYANOSCAR instead. See the Sea still looks strong so may be worth an additional bet.

One comment

  1. Lets hope that isn’t an indication of the season to come. Favourites have not won at all in the last 10 years so SCARLET DRAGON winning was a bit of a surprise. Not sure what happened to Definitelyanoscar, just didn’t have the pace at the end. Needed to move up a bit sooner.

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