Two big races may be at Haydock today, but there are equally big races happening at Ascot, namely the Christy 1965 Chase and the Ascot (Coral) Hurdle.
Lets start with the 1965 Chase which only has 6 runners which is a great pity.
Horses of 8 years old dominate the winners over the last 10 years and the only one in the field is Gold Present.
Winners over the last 10 years have all been within 10lbs of the top weight; this doesn’t help us as they all are, but there is a slight correlation between field size and weight with the larger the field the closer to the top weight the winner is. An extrapolation of this suggests that with a field of 6 the winner will be within 5lbs of the top weight; this includes Politologue, Benatar and Gold Present.
Favourites have a good record here making Politologue stand out and most horses who have won have an SP of 7/2 or below which at the moment only includes Charbel and Politologue.
Politologue is also the only P Nicholls horse in the field and he has won this more than anyone else in the last 10 years.
The Sadler’s Wells pedigree crops up again and only Politologue and Sizing Granite can claim this.
All of this points towards the favourite POLITOLOGUE to do what is expected. My only worry is how he will find the going as he has one on Ground more towards the soft lately. It could be that GOLD PRESENT might be the main danger and could be worth an e/w bet.
Advice: 2pts Win POLITOLOGUE, 1pt e/w GOLD PRESENT
Ascot Hurdle next
90% of winners come from the age group 4-7 so this discounts Rayvin Blue and Tomngerry.
There is a positive for the favourite as they have a higher percentage of winners and on the 3 times the race has been on Good ground the favourite has won twice; so therefore If the Cap Fits is standing tall here.
With the favourites winning the SP over the last 10 years is mainly 100/30 or below so this will only include If the Cap Fits and We Have A Dream.
Irish horses (If the Cap Fits and Tomngerry) and those with the trust Sadler’s Wells pedigree (If the Cap Fits and Babbling Stream) also stand out.
In terms of trainers N Henderson has won 3 times in the last 10 years and We Have A Dream is the only one he has in the field.
Weights of winners tend to be well spread out and there is little to no correlation between size of field and weight of the winner.
2pts win IF THE CAP FITS who was a good 7l ahead of We have a Dream in their last race.