12:45 #NewburyRaces #johnfrancome – Bob

Going to do this one quickly as have a busy morning carting children around from one place to another!

This race looks very much like a classic struggle between the top two who have raced against each other before.

80% of winners in the last 10 years have been 5-6 years old, this means that Santini, Le Breuil and This is it gain a positive.

Irish horses have won 60% of the races and Kilbricken Storm, Rocky’s treasure, Mr Big Shot and Skipthecuddles fit this.

Horses must have placed last time out as all winners have done this in the last 10 years. All the horses except Skipthecuddles and This is it have done this. More tellingly, 90% of winners raced and placed this season, which then discounts the favourite Santini who last raced in April.

All the horses are within 10lbs of the top weight, the field of 7 suggests the winner might be just 2 or 3lbs away from the top weight This is it at 11-9 and this would include Le Breuil at 11-7 and Rocky’s treasure at 11-8.

Sadler’s Wells descendants run well in this race and that means that Santini, Kilbricken Storm and This is it are favoured.

C Tizzard has won the last 3 outings of this race and his horse this time is Kilbricken Storn.

Finally, the odds of the winners are usually below 5-1 so this would mean Santini and Kilbricken Storm, although Rocky’s Treasure could possibly get in there.

Looking at all the above KILBRICKEN STORM looks good for the win and he beat Santini by 4.5 lengths when they last met on the same terms. Rocky’s Treasure is a big threat and could be worth an each way of the price drifts out but doesn’t like the ground.

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