Bob cops a gander at #warwickraces and #kempton races

Well I really need something to get back against Baz this weekend, but I am not sure the historical stats are going to do it. Anyway, I will give it a go.

2:25 Warwick Leamington Novices

I always remember Leamington fondly having lived there in my second year of University. Great pub crawls up the high street!

The Betting Guide works quite well here but cannot break the deadlock between Tidal Flow and Stoney Mountain. Both are in the right age range, are distance and going winners, ran last in December and won and have a good pedigree. I am going to go with the runner that Baz hasn’t and pick STONEY MOUNTAIN as my choice.

Finawn Bawn must also be worth an each way bet here.

1pt win STONEY MOUNTAIN

0.5pt e/w Finawan Bawn

2:40 Lanzarote Hurdle

Never been to Lanzarote.

The Betting Guide is not great for this race so I don’t have great faith in my choices here. We are looking for a horse around 6 years old, probably a non-favourite, must have been ridden in the last 2 months and placed on a similar distance and going before. Winner is going to be close to the top weight.

Although N Henderson has done me no favours lately I am going to stick with him in this race. If Geraghty was the jockey I might have left this one! Anyway DOUX PRETENDER looks good for this one with Darling Maltaix and Lord Napier not far behind. Canyon City looks to be a good each way bet candidate.

1pt Win DOUX PRETENDER

0.5pt e/w Canyon City

3:00 Classic Chase

Again the Betting Guide is not great for this, the patterns all appear to be fairly negative in their approach but hey ho.

We are definitely not looking for the favourite, an Irish horse would be good, that has last run in January or December but should not have won or placed in this race. However, previous form they should have won or at least placed on the same going. Sadler’s Wells pedigree is good here. Ideally what we are looking for is a horse that is going to bounce back to winning form in this race.

Now this proves to be a bit of a dilemma, as this all points towards the top two horses, either of which could end up being the favourite. The stats are telling me that DUEL AT DAWN is the more likely candidate to win so I am hoping the trend will be bucked if he comes in favourite for this race. Step Back doesn’t ping on many of the indicators which is a bit worrying as it is so highly regarded so I am concerned I may be missing something here.

1pt win DUEL AT DAWN

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