Bob reflects on how the unseasonable going is affecting historical stats

Hey, look everyone needs some excuses but even so, the unseasonably good weather is playing havoc with the historical stats and I imagine even more so with trainers as it did in the early part of the season.

The thing is this, at this time of year you would expect the ground to be soft to heavy and to back this up I will throw a few stats out.

Lets take yesterday’s races as a starting point where the going was Good.

  • 90% of the Leamington Novices Hurdle Races and the Classic Chase were on Soft or Heavy over the last 10 years.
  • 70% of the Lanzarote Hurdle was on Soft going, the rest on Good to Soft.

Now I am not a horsey person, but I imagine as a trainer you train horses to run in normal seasonal conditions, ie Soft to Heavy at this time of year. So come the race you either pull them out (as many do) or let the horse run knowing it will affect its chances.

The historical betting which I use as a basis to choose horses is very badly affected by this as using the last 10 years stats means I have nothing to go on if the going is Good. I can only imagine that I might have to go back further and look at the few instances when it is good.

Just a few musings from me on a dreary Sunday morning.

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