The going looks as though it is a little more traditional than last week so I am tempted back to the stats once again.
2:25 Cheltenham – Cotswold Chase
This looks to be a two horse race between Frodon and Elegant Escape. However, it does go against some of the historical stats. The majority of winners have been 9 or 10 year olds but looking at those in the race today I don’t think they will be too much of a threat.
Frodon is a course winner and Elegant Escape a going winner but neither have won at this distance before which should be the defining point. There is only one distance winner in the race and that is Terrefort but the stats do not rate this horse.
So the question is does Frodon have enough to overcome the fact that favourites have not won this race in the last 10 outings. I think in this case he does and coupled with the fact that Elegant Escape had one helluva race in the Welsh National which must have left its mark, FRODON is the one I am going for.
1pt Win FRODON
3:35 Cleeve Hurdle – Cheltenham
The betting looks as though there is much indecision on who will win this race.
Paisley Park has definitely impressed lately but is not a course or going winner which the historical stats suggest the winner needs to be.
Black Op which seems to be heavily tipped does not fit the historical stats at all well.
I am going to plump for Aux Ptits Soins, a course, distance and going winner, won last time out in December and is French to boot.
1pt Win – AUX PTITS SOINS
3:15 Doncaster – Sky Bet Chase (Great Yorkshire)
There are a lot of good horses here and the betting guide goes some way to separating them out.
The historical stats point towards 3 horses at the top of the field, Dingo Dollar, O O Seven and Federici. All of the are distance and going winners, ran in December and ithin the weight range for a smallish field (about 7lbs off top weight from my graph).
There is not much to choose between them but DINGO DOLLAR just has the edge I reckon by dint of the fact he didn’t win last time but looks like an improver. Federici might be worth an e/w punt for the same reasons.
1pt Win – DINGO DOLLAR
0.5pt e/w – Federici