The Sodexo Gold Cup #ascotraces

Going to go for a couple of long shots on this one that fit the profile from the betting guide.

Couple of Each Way bets

  • BLACK CORTON the top weight I hope will defy this and get in the mix.
  • LARRY is much lighter but I reckon Gary Moore can do this race again being the leading trainer here in the last 10 outings of the race.

Using history to predict the #charliehallrace at #wetherbyraces

The betting guide was updated earlier this week so lets see what it has come up with.

HorseOR 150-169Within 10lbs of top weightNon FavouriteLast raced last seasonGoing WinnerWon/Placed at distanceDid not win last race6/1 or belowSadlers wells Pedigree
Definitly RedYYYYYYYY
AsoYYYYYYY
Elegant EscapeYYYYYYY
BallyopticYYYYYYY
Top Ville BenYYYYYYY
La Bague Au RoiYYYYYYY
Molly the DollyYYYY

Going to be a very difficult race to predict as you would expect from such good horses. Going to discount Definitly Red as no horse older than 9 has won this in the last 10 years and as we saw yesterday the soft ground is quite sapping.

I am tempted to go with BALLYOPTIC this time.

Bob looks historically at the #westyorkshirehurdle

The betting guide has been updated for this weekend so lets see what it tells us.

HorseOR 140-164Non-FavouriteLast race last seasonGoing WinnerOdds below 11/2Top WeightAlleged Pedigree
UknowhatimeanharryYYYYYYY
Lord NapierYYY
Aye RightYY
BallyandyYYY
Le BreuilYYYY
Teescomponents LadYY
The Worlds EndYYYY
Two TaffsYYY

Historically, Uknowhatimeanharry literally ticks all the boxes. The early favourite Ballyandy does not have those historical components and even if Uknowhatimeanharry became the favourite this would still leave him miles ahead of the rest. The only question is, does he have enough left in the tank as this is likely to be his last season. In the last 10 years when the going has been Good to Soft this is when his age group have won so that is hopeful. If the going moves too much away from this there could be problems.

Verdict: If the going remains Good to Soft then UKNOWHATIMEANHARRY is the one who can take this race.

Looking back at the betting system

Now the jump season has started it is time to look back at the betting system which tailed off when the jump season ended. I will start using it again to provide bets each day and see where that takes us.

Only horses whose trainers have +30% strike rate and +100% Win Return using Adrian Massey’s data for that course will qualify. Then apply the changes below.

  • No bets on horses with odds above 4-1 (Yes this does mean the odd big win will go awry but it will cut out a lot of the losers)
  • Double the bet on horses that qualify with odds below 2-1
  • Flat Racing
    • No bets on first race of the season
    • No bets on horses going up a class
  • National Hunt Chases
    • Must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the previous race it must have changed class, either up or down.
  • Hurdle Races
    • It must have placed at least once in the last 3 races
    • If it didn’t place in the last race it must stay at the same class or have gone lower.